MARKET COMMENTARY
Sentiments were muddled in the local natural rubber market on Monday. While quotes for RSS4 in the physical market inched up, NMCE rubber futures were seen paring the initial gains. In the physical market, RSS4 was quoted around Rs.129 a kg, while Rubber Board’s referral rate was fixed at Rs.13070 per 100kg. Limited supplies and buying by the tire sector improved the market sentiments, though a decline witnessed in the overseas market amidst falling crude oil prices probably weighed on the overall market sentiments. In the meantime, on Tuesday, natural rubber in the overseas market is seen rising. TOCOM rubber futures trimmed initial losses, while SHFE and AFET rose. Concerns over supplies continued to lend firm support though a stronger yen restricted gains.
MARKET NEWS
⊳ Crude rubber inventories at Japanese ports stood at 12,987 tonnes as of Dec. 20, up 15.1 pct from 10 days earlier, data from the Rubber Trade Association of Japan showed.
⊳According to Union Commerce Minister the period for the export of rubber imported under the advanced licensing system has been reduced to six months from the earlier 18 months.
⊳According to media reports, tyre companies have procured about 2400 tonnes of rubber under the new formula implemented by the State government recently.
⊳Monsoon floods seen curbing Malaysian natural rubber output and expects 2015 natural rubber production to be at 700000 tonnes.
⊳According to International Rubber Consortium, natural rubber production from Malaysia and Thailand is to drop at least 30 per cent if floods in Northern Malaysia and Southern Thailand persist.
⊳Vietnam’s rubber exports stood at 108000 tonnes in November and expect 2014 exports to be at 1.07 million metric tonnes according to country’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development.
⊳According to Indonesian Rubber Association, natural rubber exports from the country is likely stay unchanged from the current levels at 2.5 million tonnes in 2015
⊳China to raise the cap for rubber import tariff to 1500yuan a tonne from the present 1200 yuan a tonne with effect from January 01.
⊳According to Thailand’s Office of Agricultural Economics estimates, natural rubber production from the country is expected to rise 2.6 per cent to 4.43 million tonnes as tapping area rose 5.9 per cent.
TECHNICAL COMMENTRY
RUBBER Feb NMCE
Despite breaching the resistance at 12960, further upsides were restricted near 13000 ranges in the previous session. Looking ahead, the lower correction being witnessed currently could stretch towards 12800-12700 ranges from where a bounce back may be anticipated. However, such moves extending beyond 12500 will lessen the prevailing positive sentiments. A direct rise over 13200 will probably see a spurt towards 13350-13500.
Source: Geofin Comtrade
