First, the 2014 Market Review
2014 is about to become history, in 2015 opened a new, changes in China’s futures market was generally greater than the impact of policy data analysis, which is a common phenomenon in domestic investment industry.
Rubber in 2014 is still a bear market, extending all the way down the decline last year, but fell to a low level in 2008, the annual decline of 34%, Shanghai latex spot some relatively resilient, down 29 percent, and the price difference of the industry is making new plastic bin Single gradually into the market. International Rubber Study Group data show that in 2014 production of 12.26 million tons of natural rubber rose 1.5 percent, consumption of 11.934 million tons, an increase of 5.2%, of which the main producing countries, Thailand production increased by 5.9% to 4.416 million tons, production increased by 1.1 Indonesia %.
In the second quarter, subject to continued rumors Thailand cast storage, excess supply and China is expected to exceed the negative impact of poor economic data, etc., 1409 Hujiao main contract fell back into the channel, from 16,200 yuan / ton line constantly dropping to 13,650 yuan / tons. The third quarter, a rebound Hujiao weakness, then again stumble endlessly, quarter once fall into the abyss. In the fourth quarter, Hujiao Xianyanghouyi again fall into the abyss.
Second, the impact factor analysis
Macroeconomic factors
- What is the new normal
General Secretary Xi Jinping on Chinese economy to adapt to the “new normal” of this important presentation, causing great concern all walks of life, more and more people use this concept to analyze and explain the Chinese economy. Xi Jinping, secretary in May 2014 when the expedition first noted in Henan – China’s development is still in an important period of strategic opportunities, we want to boost confidence, the current features of the economic development of starting to adapt to the new normal, normal state of mind to maintain strategic .
Xi Jinping, general secretary at the APEC meeting formal definition describes the new normal, the new normal “in forming his opinion on the further several key features: Speed -” from high growth to the rapid growth “; Structure -” economic structure upgrading “, the tertiary industry and consumer demand gradually become the main urban and rural gap; power -” from factor-driven, investment-driven to innovation-driven. “
China is the world’s rubber consumption country, and our domestic Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures trading volume is far greater than other exchanges, did not at a base level, so the Chinese world rubber price has the absolute right to speak, China’s new The economic environment for the entire rubber industry chain set a new tone, the impact caused by weakening demand is bound to transfer to the whole industry chain.
2, the price at marginal cost
① planting costs
Natural rubber plantations and related input costs including land, seedlings sharing, fertilizers, pesticides, tools, labor management and other expenses. According to the case study areas relevant agencies visited Hainan learned, can be related to the production process of rubber plantations estimated input costs (due to differences in the main production areas and land costs and investment related subjects will be slightly different).
The average annual cost of rubber tree planting is 425 yuan / mu. For some private rubber plantation in terms of the factors taken into account the interest of the loan funds, the production cost will be slightly higher, but the cost of land and related rubber farmers into small family-owned rubber plantations will be relatively low, the minimum or even to 300 yuan / mu.
Will be planted per acre cost of inputs and the corresponding yield of natural rubber are converted from the cost of production per unit weight matrix made, assuming an average annual cost of inputs, Hainan and Yunnan are 425 yuan / mu, output was 75 kg / mu and 105 kg / mu, which converted the Hainan Natural Rubber planting costs 5667 yuan / ton, Yunnan Natural Rubber planting costs 4048 yuan / ton.
② planting Desire
In areas of 12 yuan / kg price of 13,500 yuan cyanoacrylate glue off / ton to calculate labor costs tapping in 6000-7200 yuan / ton, here take the maximum number of 7200 yuan / ton, processing and transportation costs about 1,500 yuan / tons. Assuming Hainan, Yunnan planting costs are 425 yuan / mu, then planting earnings were as follows:
Hainan planting earnings = 5667 + 7200 + 1500 = 14367 (yuan / ton), 14,367 yuan / ton> 13,500 yuan / ton, indicating a loss of their planting.
Yunnan grow earnings = 4048 + 7200 + 1500 = 12748 (yuan / ton), 12,748 yuan / ton <13,500 yuan / ton, indicating that there are still some profits grow.
③ workers tapping willingness analysis
Hainan urban residents per capita wage income 15,773 yuan / year, rural per capita net income of 8343 yuan / year; Yunnan urban residents per capita wage income 13,348 yuan / year, rural per capita net income of 6141 yuan / year. It can be inverted to calculate the cost of natural rubber, their income levels corresponding to the following table. As can be seen from the data in the table, when rubber prices fell to 13,081 yuan / ton, Hainan tapping workers will be less than the annual income of urban residents per capita wage levels, the possibility of abandoning jobs will be cut dramatically increase the marginal price in Yunnan at 10,808 yuan / ton. It should be noted that this price will be as per the marginal wage growth and uplift.
For farmers who owned rubber plantations of rubber, glue all for himself all sales revenue, and because of its relatively low production costs, tapping the same amount, the lower its critical point abandoned cutting jobs. The same method can be converted from a critical cost disposable rubber farmers were cutting jobs for Hainan 12,448 yuan / ton, Yunnan 9942 yuan / ton.
Supply factors
1, the supply-side situation
Currently the entire rubber industry reshuffle continued upgrading, 2011 after the new rubber planting area is very low, but in 2008 the peak planting rubber tapping into the forest of 5-7 years, then the resulting supply will peak in 2013 to 2015 In between, the supply pressure for next year only to rise.
Because Jiaojia Diego lows, a serious blow to the rubber farmers actively producing countries, reducing the supply of natural rubber. Data of Natural Rubber Producing Countries Association (ANRPC) 11 report for the month shows that 1-11 months, natural rubber producing countries rubber production fell 1.2 percent to 9.97 million tons, exports fell 1.1 percent to 8.06 million tons, consumption is expected to increase year on year 4.8%.The report is expected to increase in 2014 China’s natural rubber production to 871,000 tons, an increase of 0.69%; rubber output in major producing countries reduced to 10,322,700 tons, up since 2010, the first negative growth.
The past three years, the global oversupply of natural rubber, although the overall pattern of maintaining, but every year the amount of excess preached narrowing trend. Public information display, 2015, the amount of global natural rubber supply surplus will shrink. IRSG expects 2015 global natural rubber supply surplus will decline to 202,000 tons, and in 2014 was 37.1 million tons in 2013 to 650,000 tons.
- Inventory
This year foreign domestic rubber prices upside down, a larger decline Bonded stocks, but this is not due to demand better but because of the smaller size of the financing.
2014, the Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks at record highs, natural rubber, rubber prices make hedging plate heavier pressure drop, bounce is always weakness. Finally, by the exchange mandatory “transgenic now”, rubber futures stock only passive greatly reduced (November 25 giant natural rubber stock futures cut 50,250 tons, completely release the pressure on the old warehouse glue). As of early December 2014, the period of the natural rubber stock Subtotal from 18 million tonnes to the current 14 million tons, while natural rubber stock futures (ie receipts) from 128,000 tons down to about 80,000 tons bigger. Of course, the big stock exchanges are not gone down, and more forced into the spot market, the formation of hidden inventory.
The first half of 2014 China’s rubber stocks rising spot market in the second half into a rapid destocking process. At present, Qingdao Bonded rubber stocks hit since 2012’s record low. As of early December 2014, Qingdao Bonded rubber stocks higher point total in mid-May during the year has been reduced from 226,700 to 135,500 tons, a drop of 62.6%; natural rubber inventories fell by 172,200 to 97,800 tons, a drop of 63.8 %; composite rubber fell by 12,300 to 12,400 tons, a drop of 49.8%; synthetic rubber fell by 42,200 to 25,300 tons, a drop of 62.5%.
Demand factors
1, an adhesive glue ripple
China has a large number of imports each year, adhesive adhesive standard adjustment will affect up conduction, the main producing countries in Southeast Asia growing areas do not have the processing capacity, processing plants will be significantly cut, and transferred to the rubber farmers will be cut out of the raw material backlog , there is a huge pressure on rubber prices again. The same adhesive standard adjustment tremendous impact on producing two disc manufacturers, especially adhesive sold nearly 500,000 tons of raw materials in Malaysia, due to China adjustment policies, and lose its existing sales channels.
Adhesive standard adjustment, a huge impact on tire plant raw material costs! China will promote cooperation with the upstream one tire factory rubber factory, the development of new standards for complex requirements for their use under the new adhesive, which is the raw material cost for the Chinese tire plant is very unfavorable. Adhesive introduction of new standards, will push up the cost of Chinese tires, Chinese tire in the world at competitive prices will be reduced.
2, imports
China is the world’s largest importer of natural rubber, mainly from the three main producing countries – Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia imports.2015 natural rubber determine tariffs raised 1500 yuan / ton, or 20% of both the low tariff from rubber tentatively January 1, 2015: natural latex tariff increase of 10%, or 900 yuan / ton, both from low; smoke film 20% or 1,500 yuan / ton, both from low; 20% natural rubber technology classification or 1500 yuan / ton, both from the low.
The latest data released by China General Administration of Customs show that China’s November 2014 natural rubber imports 218,861 tons, an increase of 22.5%, down 18.7% over last year; November import 112,370 tons of synthetic rubber, the chain down 5.4% year on year drop 17%. January to November, China imported 2.33 million tons of natural rubber, up by 9.4%; synthetic rubber imported 1.355 million tons, down 2.4% year on year.Further decline in imports will dampen global rubber prices, while the national procurement agencies exist to make more inventory.
3, consumption statistics
Third quarter 2014 8.9 million tons of global consumption of natural rubber, up by 8.4% from January to November 2014 China natural rubber consumption up by 7.54% to 4.114 million tons, which is a official data, I do not know how much truth there is , but according to the actual research on corporate bodies consumption growth does not exceed 3%, according to infer that this should be closer to the real situation.
Data from the International Rubber Study Group (IRSG) provided, in 2014 global natural rubber demand will increase by 4.5% to 11.904 million tons, increased to 12.433 million tons in 2015. In addition, in 2014 the demand for synthetic rubber is expected to rise 9.1 percent to 16.806 million tons, production is expected to increase 7.8 percent to 16.676 million tons; in 2015 will increase by 4.6% to 17.575 million tons, production is expected to increase 3.6 percent to 17.269 million tons.
4, the consumer side of the tire situation
Experienced 10 years of rapid development in recent years, especially after the investment “blowout”, regardless of passenger car tire or truck tire truck tire appeared more serious structural surplus, that surplus tires middle and low homogeneity, while still high, and the green tire There are gaps. Stocks generally in production from 1.5 to 2 months. Tire companies operating rate continue to decline, falling to lows during the year. China’s tire relatively high concentration, low capacity utilization and high inventory tends to keep the enterprise market for prices, lower prices, causing prices to focus down.
China January-October growth of around 7 percent tire capacity expansion demand is shrinking, steel tire operating rate at around 70 percent, semi-steel tire operating rate of about 80%, during the APEC northern tire factory were carried out limited production, but did not resume production after the end of the meeting, indicating that demand for tires is really unsatisfactory, factories are not recovered willingness production.
2015 tire marketing by high prices, high margin to low priced, high-possession; many of the traditional channels and businesses will disappear due to changes in the future; the Combination, a trade and integration services marketing will be the main way of profit.
5, automotive terminal
January 2014 to November, China’s auto sales were completed respectively 21,430,500 and 21,079,100, an increase of 7.2% and 6.1%, respectively. Among them, the passenger growth of 10.3% and 9.2%, respectively. On the current growth momentum, the Chinese leader for six consecutive years the global automotive market no suspense. In 2014, the heavy truck market highs, the downturn in the second half all the way to November for the first time from positive to negative. Automobile Association data show that from January to November, total sales of heavy truck industry 687,644, down 0.93%, -75 year is expected to sell 745,000 units, falling 3-4% over the previous year.
LMC Automotive predicts that China’s passenger car sales in 2015, or an increase of 9 percent, a slight slowdown compared with 10% in 2014. LMC said that China’s car, SUV and MPV’s total delivery sales grew 10% to 1,655,286 units in October this year; the figure is higher than the 8% increase in the third quarter when, showing signs of growth in the market stabilized; and the fourth year quarter is the Chinese automobile market season, will make annual passenger car sales grew by about 10%.
Third, investors focus and outlook
1, our domestic investment environment is the policy factors greater than the data analysis, the need to focus on policy issues in 2015, especially in China round shelf storage capacity of 115,000 tons problem, and these rubber overcharged during 2009, 2015 will face the shelf life of the issue.
2, Thailand purchasing and storage policies are able to deliver?December, deputy leader of the Democratic Party of Thailand Phi Nigeria recently led more than 10 people on behalf of the former southeastern Thailand, Thai joint meeting with the Minister of IICA, asked the Government to vigorously tackle the problem of rubber. Nepal Phi, said this year September 24 he and former elected representatives was a book by bidi Punta Pakistani Prime fertility will recommend Jiaojia problem solving, now more than two months, the plight of rubber farmers did not improve, so the application surface again Agriculture Minister see fit, to ask the government for its proposed five urgent measures to resolve the progress of implementation. Phi Nigeria stressed that the Government and the communication channels rubber farmers already interrupted, only the government to solve the problem of the progress made by a clear explanation, it can be explained to the local rubber farmers.
3, China’s subsidy policy. Now there is news rumors, in 2015 China’s rubber planting areas will be subsidized, it is not clear fidelity of this information.
4, China composite rubber implementation of new standards, the new standards will decrease the proportion of raw rubber to 88%, which led to the current factory in Southeast Asia can not be produced at the existing level of technology to meet this requirement, this effect is bound to spread To import demand side.
5, rubber supply and demand structure changed a longer period. Although the current rubber prices lower, tapping rubber farmers will decline, natural rubber production will be affected to some extent, but the potential for production of rubber trees can still exist, when rubber prices rebound or bounce to a certain level, tapping wishes will enhance the potential capacity will be transformed into production, supply quickly picked up again in turn weighed on prices. Only when rubber prices low to a certain extent, the emergence of a large area of discarded gum forest felling species phenomenon, it is expected to completely change the structure of supply and demand, in order to truly Jiaojia by “Bear” turn “cow.” Otherwise, only the terminal needs to wait for follow-up, in order to promote structural change in supply and demand from surplus to balance. However, this relatively long period, or in 2-3 years.
6 summarizes Summing up: Macro given direction, the macro cycle in recession, commodity becomes the weakest with Ge, the new normal rubber will remain low; given the strength of supply and demand, excess supply of constant pressure, cut the cost of natural rubber edge effect gradually emerges; technical set rhythm, from the technical side, rubber prices in 2015 will be more likely to be in operation within the range 10000-15000 shock, it will be very difficult year for unilateral operation.
Translated by Google Translator from http://market.cria.org.cn/25/25307.html
