[Geofin Comtrade] Daily report on Natural Rubber: February 6, 2015

MARKET COMMENTARY

⊳ Despite weakness seen in the overseas natural rubber market, the commodity on the local market was seen rising on Thursday propped up by reports over possible import duty hike in the upcoming budget. In the physical market, RSS4 grade rubber was quoted around Rs.122-123 a kg, while in the futures segment, it jumped three per cent to hit its highest level in about four weeks. In the meantime, natural rubber resumed to rise in the international market. On Friday, TOCOM rubber futures rose more than one per cent and so were SHFE and AFET rubber futures. Gains in crude oil coupled with worries over supplies lend firm support to the commodity to edge higher. However, persisting demand woes from China weighed on overall market sentiments.

MARKET NEWS

⊳Media report saysIndia likely to raise import duty on natural rubber to 30 per cent from 20 per cent to protest the domestic growers from cheap imports and check further decline in prices. The hike may to be announced in the next Union Budget.

⊳Crude rubber inventories at Japanese ports stood at 12976tonnes as of Jan. 20, down 0.5 percent from 10 days earlier, data from the Rubber Trade Association of Japan showed.

⊳Rubber inventories in the warehouses monitored by SHFE stayed unchanged last week at 164681 tonnes.

⊳the 2nd edition of India Rubber Meet will be held on 04 and 05 March 2015 at Le Meridian Convention Center, Kochi and will be inaugurated by Hon’ble Minister of Commerce and Industry Ms. Nirmala Sitharaman.

⊳The National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) and the government will instruct the Government Savings Bank and Krung Thai Bank to provide business operators with soft loans worth 25 billion baht ($768 million) to buy natural rubber from farmers, the Bangkok Post reported, quoting Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Prawit Wongsuwon.

⊳The United States is set to slap more duties on imports of tires from China after the Department of Commerce determined they were sold too cheaply in the United States.

⊳Ivory Coast’s natural rubber output for 2014 reached 311,429 tonnes, exceeding a forecast of 296,456 tonnes, the head of the natural rubber association said.

⊳Kerala Chief Minister and Opposition Leader submitted a memorandum before the Prime Minister, urging the latter to take necessary steps to solve the problems faced by rubber sector.

TECHNICAL COMMENTRY

RUBBER Mar NMCE

With the breach of consolidation range resistance of 12300, there exist mild positive bias and the momentum is likely to stretch towards 12550, above which the prevailing sentiments is likely to strengthen. Alternatively, a direct fall below 12180 with volumes may have the potential to see a slide towards the recent lows.

Source: Geofin Comtrade