[Geofin Comtrade] Daily report on Natural Rubber: February 10, 2015

MARKET COMMENTARY

A mixed trend was witnessed in the local natural rubber market on Monday. While RSS4 grade rubber rose in the physical market, in the futures segment, the commodity ended the day’s session 0.5 per cent down after testing its highest level in more than four weeks. Talks of a possible import duty hike in the upcoming Union Budget bolstered the prices amidst uptrend witnessed in the international market. In the mean time, the commodity is seen declining in the major overseas market on Tuesday after the recent upswing. TOCOM rubber futures were down about a per cent and so were SHFE and AFET rubber futures. Strengthening yen and worries over demand from China weighed on though tightening supplies lend lower level support. Moreover, with Lunar New Year holidays in China fast approaching activities are likely to slow down in coming days.

MARKET NEWS

⊳ According to the Rubber Board, natural rubber imports by India jumped 47 per cent in January to 30441 tonnes on year on year basis.

⊳Rubber inventories in the warehouses monitored by SHFE rose 0.1 per cent last week to 164821 tonnes.

⊳Media report says India likely to raise import duty on natural rubber to 30 per cent from 20 per cent to protest the domestic growers from cheap imports and check further decline in prices. The hike may to be announced in the next Union Budget.

⊳Crude rubber inventories at Japanese ports stood at 12976tonnes as of Jan. 20, down 0.5 percent from 10 days earlier, data from the Rubber Trade Association of Japan showed.

⊳the 2nd edition of India Rubber Meet will be held on 04 and 05 March 2015 at Le Meridian Convention Center, Kochi and will be inaugurated by Hon’ble Minister of Commerce and Industry Ms. Nirmala Sitharaman.

⊳The National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) and the government will instruct the Government Savings Bank and Krung Thai Bank to provide business operators with soft loans worth 25 billion baht ($768 million) to buy natural rubber from farmers, the Bangkok Post reported, quoting Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Prawit Wongsuwon.

⊳The United States is set to slap more duties on imports of tires from China after the Department of Commerce determined they were sold too cheaply in the United States.

⊳Ivory Coast’s natural rubber output for 2014 reached 311,429 tonnes, exceeding a forecast of 296,456 tonnes, the head of the natural rubber association said.

TECHNICAL COMMENTRY

RUBBER Mar NMCE

Even as there exists positive bias, now it is mandatory to clear the next strong hurdle of 13000 upside for another round of buying spree. Else, the lower correction being witnessed currently is likely towards 12400 and slippage past the same could puncture the positive sentiments.

Source: Geofin Comtrade