By Rajendra Jadhav
KOCHI, India, March 5 (Reuters) – Global natural rubberoutput could jump over 5 percent this year after posting itsfirst drop in a half-decade in 2014, as a price rebound promptsmore tapping in key producers Thailand, Vietnam and India, a topindustry official said.
The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries(ANRPC) expects international output of 11.18 million tonnes in2015, its secretary-general told Reuters.
Despite rising production, natural rubber prices arelikely to extend gains after climbing over a quarter sincehitting their lowest in more-than five years in September lastyear, boosted by lower inventory and economic recovery in theUnited States.
“Total world consumption didn’t fall last year. There wasincremental growth, which depleted stocks,” Sheela Thomas saidon the sidelines of industry conference India Rubber Meet.
At the end of January, stocks in ANRPC countries stood at988,300 tonnes, down nearly a quarter from last year’s level.
“In the next few weeks, wintering will affect production …A moderate increase in prices has to happen.”
Rubber is tapped year round but latex output drops duringthe dry wintering season, when trees shed leaves. Wintering inThailand and Malaysia lasts from February to April.
OUTPUT REVIVAL
A sharp drop in prices had prompted some farmers in India,Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia to suspend tapping last year.
A moderate recovery in prices will encourage the resumptionof tapping, especially in Thailand, where farmers do not havealternative sources of income, Thomas said.
Output in Thailand, the world’s biggest natural rubberproducer, is likely to rise 7.4 percent to 4.3 million tonnes,while production in second-biggest producer Indonesia couldremain largely steady around 3.1 million tonnes.
Vietnam, which became the world’s No.3 producer in 2013,could see its output rising 4.9 percent to a record 1 milliontonnes.
Meanwhile, a slowdown in China’s economy could pull down theAsian giant’s imports for the first time in at least a decade,Thomas said.
She estimated China’s 2015 imports at 3.7 million tonnes,down nearly 10 percent from the year before
China’s Premier Li Keqiang on Thursday said the world’ssecond largest economy would target growth this year of around 7percent, signalling the lowest expansion for a quarter of acentury.
“China’s growth has been moderating, which will have animpact on demand. Imports from other countries are expected togo up,” Thomas said. (Editing by Joseph Radford)
– Reuters
