MARKET COMMENTARY
As the week’s session commences, natural rubber in the international market is seen swinging between positive and negative turfs with a negative bias. While TOCOM rubber futures stretched previous session losses, SHFE and AFET rubber futures were trading mixed tracking declines in crude oil and other industrial commodities. Amidst lingering worries over demand from the top consumer China, employment data from the US last week intensified worries that the US central bank may revise up the interest rates soon, which dampened the overall market sentiment. In the mean time, the commodity in the local market was under pressure last week, weighed down by decline in the natural rubber prices in the overseas market and poor demand from the tyre sector. Looking ahead, while weak prices in the international market is likely to maintain pressure, the price stabilization scheme announced by the state government is also to end soon, which could hamper the overall market mood.
MARKET NEWS
⊳Rubber inventories in the warehouses monitored by SHFE declined 5.1 per cent to 156503 tonnes.
⊳According to ANRPC, gobal natural rubber output could jump over five per cent this year after posting its first drop in nearly half-decade 2014 as a price rebound prompts more tapping in key producers Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam and India.
⊳The two-day India Rubber Meet 2015, organised jointly by the Rubber Board and other stakeholders in natural rubber, will conclude today in Kochi.
⊳India’s natural rubber production in 2015-16 (Apr-Mar) is likely to rise 12% on-year to 750,000 tn, said Rubber Board chairman (additional charge) A. Jayathilak. In the current FY, natural rubber output is estimated at 670,000 tn, down 13.4% from the 774,000 tn produced in 2013-14.
⊳In the Bandung meet of IRTC and IRCo, the members discussed the supply-demand scene, price stabilisation, ways to raise rubber consumption in each country, and ways to strengthen cooperation among other ASEAN rubber-producing countries such as Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and Vietnam but fell short of formulating specific and detailed efforts to support the price.
⊳Chief Minister OommenChandy has said that the government would soon take steps to check the slide in rubber price. A press note issued by the Chief Minister’s Office, after discussions between Mr. Chandy and rubber dealers, quoted him as saying that discussions would be held with the Rubber Board soon on the issue.
TECHNICAL COMMENTRY
RUBBER Mar NMCE
While there exist weakness, as long as support at 12400 holds downside, pullback may be anticipated to 12650 or even more to 12800. However, a direct fall below 12400 with sturdy volume could call for 12250/12150 or more
Source: Geofin Comtrade
