- Price trend
According to the business community Monitoring data show: 28th (Friday) days gum domestic price fell sharply, as of 28th afternoon, Business Society monitoring of natural rubber SCRWF spot East China mainstream distribution price of 12625 yuan/ton, compared with the previous session (27th) fell 5.21%, compared to the last Friday (21st) down about 7.51%.
- Market analysis
July 28, the domestic natural rubber futures sharply down, the spot market impact is very big, the domestic mainstream market prices closely followed the Shanghai plastic sharply downward; current tapping peak season, downstream start rate is not high, the demand has not changed, the market deal is not ideal.
Futures: Domestic Disc main 09 contracts face delivery, positions for the same period, the main start shift warehouse for the month, August will face the limit, bulls face the risk of delivery, short 09 contract caused by the Shanghai plastic Plunge. Main contract RU1709 opening 13480 yuan/ton, the highest price of 13600 yuan/ton, the lowest price of 12500 yuan/ton, close 12500 yuan/ton, down 7.03% (945), turnover 686942 hands, positions of 364704 hands, compared with the previous trading day to lighten 29606 hands. Tokyo Rubber Day Plate close, daily glue October close 203.4 fell 5.1, daily glue November close 204.0 fell 6.9, daily glue December close 203.1 fell 9.5.
Spot:
Price, 28th SCRWF spot distribution price than 27th domestic enterprises mainstream distribution price fell 900 yuan/ton around. Shanghai area, 15 whole milk standard gum 12500-12900 yuan/ton about, Vietnam 3L newspaper 12800-12900 Yuan/ton about, Thailand cigarette Piece Gum newspaper 15700 yuan/ton about. Yunnan Region 16 All milk standard for the future of the rise and drop reaction is not very big, 16 full milk standard price stability kept at 13000-13100 yuan/ton. Qingdao area, 15, the whole milk label adhesive reported 12300 yuan/ton, 16 plastic price 12500 yuan/ton or so, the dollar plastic, Qingdao free trade zone Thai three reported 1830 USD/ton, Thai standard spot quote 1550 USD/ton.
Import and export, June 2017 China’s imports of plastic and synthetic gum 520,000 tons, January-June imports of 3.42 million tons, compared with the same period last year, 27.2%, June, Shandong Province imports of gum increased by 33.1%.
Output, the global production area has been cut, is currently in the production of rubber season, there has been a new tapping area increased this year, the global day of production is expected to increase significantly. In South-East Asia, the September tripartite meeting may have reduced export or limited decision-making, and the market is now unlikely to have much of that information.
Inventory, bonded Area inventory reaction terminal demand, the entire first half of the industrial chain inventory is in absolute high, July 17, the total rubber stock of Qingdao free trade zone continued to decline 4.39% to 258,900 tons, natural rubber inventories continued to decline 3.22% to 201,400 tons, but still higher than the same period in nearly two years inventory; the pressure on the plastic inventory is a record high, the huge inventory brought heavy pressure on the market.
On the demand side, from the downstream point of view, last week, the whole steel tire and half steel tire start rate has increased, but the overall demand is still weak, the current high temperature, the factory start-up rate is difficult to rise substantially, the domestic tire factory start-up rate is basically located in the last four years the lowest level, visible downstream demand is very low.
- Future forecast
Business Club Natural Rubber analysts believe that the current increase in gum production, bonded area inventory has been reduced but still higher than two years of the same level, the last period of inventory pressure is huge, import volume is high, downstream is still in demand slack season, natural rubber price or will continue to be restrained, focus on the cost range of days, future or will be 12000-12500 yuan/ton concussion, the deal is still weak, supply and demand contradiction in the short term difficult to change.
Translated by Bing Translator from http://market.cria.org.cn/25/39057.html
