The Chemical Market Outlook in 2013
2012 aged tail, butadiene market Panjin Ethylene Qi Xiang Tenda have raised the market price situation ending. There is reason to believe that the posture of butadiene will be a good start into 2013.
The butadiene market suffered “Waterloo” in 2012, the price is cut high points from February 27,000 yuan (t price, the same below), all the way down to around 12,000 yuan in early December. The main reason, one terminal needs not to force the automobile and tire industry downturn; Second, the influx of foreign products, the annual import volume is expected to be 260,000 tons, an increase of more than 40%; multiple project release capacity Qi Xiang Tenda 100,000 tons / year, 120,000 t / year Fushun Petrochemical, Daqing Petrochemical 90,000 tons / year and Chengdu ethylene, 150,000 tons / year plant has put into operation.
Nevertheless, relative to other chemical products, butadiene is still the most “money” way of one of the products, even at the lowest point, the profit margin is also from 2000 to 3000, anti-market risk ability. Bulk chemical raw materials, butadiene chemical raw materials in 2013 is the most promising market.
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Rigid surge in demand
Butadiene downstream products include butadiene rubber, styrene-butadiene rubber and ABS resin three accounted for respectively 37%, 33% and 12%, respectively. Butadiene butadiene rubber raw materials, accounting for 70% of the proportion of feedstock butadiene styrene-butadiene rubber. Rapid development in the automotive and other industries driven, styrene-butadiene rubber and butadiene rubber capacity of rapid expansion. SBR, the domestic production capacity of 1.1 million tons in 2009, 2012, soared to 170 million tons; butadiene rubber capacity concentrated outbreak in 2012, with 150,000 tons of the, Maoming Petrochemical 10 million tons / year, Chengdu ethylene / year, Shandong Chinachem New device included in production scheduling, production capacity of 800,000 tons / year. Although in the case of weak demand terminal, device operating rate is affected, but these old and new devices, rigid demand for feedstock butadiene has formed the scale will still maintain a high level in 2013.
Increasingly scarce resources
Relative to the expansion of the styrene-butadiene rubber, butadiene rubber capacity sharply, the the butadiene supply capacity significantly behind the pace of growth. As a by-product of naphtha cracking of ethylene, ethylene plant put into operation and must naphtha cracker to produce butadiene. With the production capacity of China Petroleum, China Petrochemical and other large petrochemical enterprises. 2011 new capacity is 2.5 million tons of ethylene vinyl expansion of production capacity of 6.5 million tons in 2012, 2013 ethylene production capacity or back down to 200 million tons. While abroad, a new technology for shale gas and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) cracking ethylene, nearly half costs less than naphtha law, but this new process byproduct butadiene. Therefore, with the manufacturers to adopt cheaper process of cracking ethylene, butadiene production will become increasingly scarce. The optimistic forecast, 2013 butadiene market relative to 2012 there will be a more optimistic trend.
Price increases as well as space
Because the elasticity of supply and downstream demand, butadiene has been hot speculation traders and rubber companies, the price is often out of the unexpected curve and the high point. Space from the profit point of view, the recovery in the overall level of profitability of the synthetic rubber industry, but also in comparison to other products, is a high value-added products withstand capability of raw material price increases. The data show that the rubber products industry gross profit in 2012 close to the 2009 record high butadiene high prices will not cause a particularly significant impact on the downstream. In 2013, the butadiene price there is still further room for improvement.
Improvement in the economic environment
2013 better than 2012. According to authoritative forecasts, China’s macro-economic growth in the ring than signs of stabilization and recovery.With the warming of the macro-economic, micro-enterprises pressure will quickly ease. World economic growth in 2013 compared with 2012, does not appear much volatility, roughly flat or rose slightly more likely.Meanwhile, the U.S. monetary policy continued to loose, the Fed launch QE3 and QE4, crude oil prices will remain high probability, from the cost support butadiene prices rebounded.
But in 2013 there are still some unfavorable factors, the formation of butadiene market pressure. November 1, 2012, the U.S. labeling law formally implemented, covering almost all of the tires, banned the import and sales force does not meet the standard tire. Right now the labeling law countries, though a few, but once full implementation in the world, then the impact of the 56% of the passenger car tire exports, 23% of truck tire exports, the impact would amount to about $ 5 billion, which accounted for the domestic tire total The output value of 15% for the domestic tire industry is a very serious impact, thereby affecting the butadiene and downstream rubber products stronger. In addition, labor costs, a shortage of funds, and exports a range of issues will continue to suppress the chemical market, including butadiene.
To sum up, in the long and short interleaving, 2013 butadiene market good or will become dominant, especially in support of just need to increase the resource constraints and other factors, butadiene is expected to submit a satisfactory answer.
Translated by Google Translator from http://news.cria.org.cn/4/12374.html
