Oil breaks above $72 as supply concerns build

By Amanda Cooper

LONDON (Reuters) – Oil prices extended gains on Wednesday, lifted by a reported decline in U.S. crude inventories and the risk of supply disruptions.

Brent crude oil futures () rose 87 cents to $72.45 a barrel by 1143 GMT, while U.S. WTI crude futures () rose 95 cents to $67.47.

“Yesterday evening saw the API report a surprising decrease in U.S. crude oil stocks and a reduction in oil product stocks that was sharper than anticipated,” Commerzbank (DE:) oil analyst Carsten Fritsch said in a note.

U.S. crude inventories fell by 1 million barrels last week to 428 million barrels, the American Petroleum Institute (API) said.

OPEC’s ministerial committee tasked with monitoring the group’s supply-cutting deal with non-OPEC countries, led by Russia, meets in the Saudi city of Jeddah on Friday.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and 10 rival producers have restrained output by a joint 1.8 million barrels per day since January 2017 and pledged to do so until the end of this year.

“Despite an oil price of over $70 per barrel and the fact that the oversupply has been eliminated, a phase-out of the production cuts will not be on the agenda,” Fritsch said.

Oil has been supported by the perception among investors that tensions in the Middle East could lead to supply disruptions, including renewed U.S. sanctions against Iran, as well as falling output in crisis-hit Venezuela.

“Oil prices are holding near three-year highs (reached earlier in April) for the time being, and with inventories back in line with normal levels, the supply glut of the last few years appears to be over,” said William O’Loughlin, investment analyst at Australia’s Rivkin Securities.

Dutch bank ING said in a note to clients that Brent had risen back above $70 in April “due to geopolitical risks along with some fundamentally bullish developments in the market”.

It raised its average 2018 price forecast for Brent to $66.50 a barrel from $60.25, and its 2018 WTI forecast to $62.50 from $57.75.

For next year, however, ING expects lower prices due to rising U.S. crude output, which has jumped by a quarter since mid-2016.

Official weekly data on U.S. inventory levels will be published by the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday.

(For a graphic on ‘Brent, WTI crude futures price curve’ click https://reut.rs/2vnKJCe)

(For a graphic on ‘OPEC members’ compliance with crude output cuts click https://reut.rs/2J6lmGZ)

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