BUDAPEST: The crown trimmed its losses against the euro on Friday after Czech Central Bank (CNB) Governor Jiri Rusnok said its weakness may bring forward the next interest rate hike.
Trading at 25.79 versus the euro at 1247 GMT, the crown was a shade weaker from Thursday, while Central European markets were mixed, with the zloty firming 0.1 percent, drifting off a 6-and-1/2-month low set in early trade.
If the crown remains weaker than expected a little longer, “the space for another hike will come maybe a bit earlier and maybe will be a bit bigger”, Rusnok said.
The bank has projected its next rate hike to come around the end of the year, but most analysts in a Reuters poll early this month forecast the rise for the third quarter of the year.
Regional assets generally took a breather on Friday after a recovery in bond and stock prices in the previous session.
Equities mostly eased. Budapest’s main stock index shed almost 1 percent, driven by a 4 percent decline in OTP Bank to the key 10,000-forint ($36.49) line as the shares started ex-dividend trade.
The dollar’s rally versus the euro has been the key driver of a sell-off in emerging markets including Central Europe this month, along with a rise in the US 10-year Treasury yield to above 3 percent.
The dollar advanced further on Friday, but the US bond saw its yield dropping 4 basis points to 2.936 percent.
It has fallen since Federal Reserve minutes published on Wednesday indicated a slower-than-expected rate hike pace. This triggered a relief rally in Central European government bond markets, which continued in some parts of the market on Friday.
Romanian bonds were bid lower by 1-2 basis points, while the leu was steady at 4.6304 versus the euro.
The Romanian unit, which is more closely managed by the central bank than its more liquid regional peers, has not only weathered the global storm but even firmed this week.
On Thursday it reached its strongest level this year apart from one day in early January, just before the Romanian central bank delivered its first hike in its benchmark rate in a decade.
Since then it raised rates two more times and eyes more tightening as inflation has risen to 5-year highs, and Romanian government bond yields have reached 4-year highs.
New pledges from the ruling party to maintain its wage- and pension-boosting policy are unlikely to reverse a slowdown in economic growth to about 4 percent, while the risk of budget overshoots remains, market participants said.
Source: Brecorder
