3.1.4. European auto market downturn exacerbated competitive pressures
European automobile production and sales data as we expected in September, the overall rebounded slightly, but the range is limited. This weakness in the pick-up will be conducted to the European tire market consumption. According to statistics, Europe and the United States to replace the tires account for about 80% of the tire needs, therefore, how much car ownership is decided to replace the tire demand factors, see sub-models, European and American passenger car replacement accounted for the tire a total demand of about 79%, heavy truck accounting for about 76%. In recent years, the European car registrations data analysis, a negative growth in 2010, the European car registrations growth is -4.37%, a slight improvement in 2011, -2.2%, but with the deepening of the European debt crisis. consumer side further contraction in car registrations fell by -7.57% in January-September 2012, the European Automobile Manufacturers Association expects the European automobile market this year will shrink by 8-10%. In addition, the consumer countries from Europe’s major car car ownership data analysis, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom, the growth rate of car ownership is maintained at an average of around 0.67%, 2008 and 2011 car ownership has shown a significant decline. The decline in car ownership and registrations situation drag on the European market tire consumer replacement tires in Europe will be reduced by 5.9% in 2012, Goldman Sachs is expected.
Figure 7: European car registrations (unit: vehicles)
Figure 8: car ownership in some European countries (Unit: million)
Source: WIND Securities Futures Research Department
Overall, the domestic tire exports to the European influence factors mainly from two aspects, tire labeling law purposes, this is bound to be interested in the impact of domestic tire exports, part of the tire companies have been ill-prepared, but the specific impact degree has yet to be a test of the actual market situation; Second, during the special protective case, the recovery trend of the U.S. auto market demand, the first three quarters of this year, the European auto market remains in the doldrums, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers Association estimated annual sales volume there will be a 10% decline in European tire consumption will impact. Therefore, Chinese tire enterprises are facing trade barriers and market contraction double limit. Chinese tire exports to Europe can hardly be optimistic.
3.2. The end of the special protective case moderate drag on exports to ease labeling law
3.2.1. Chinese tire export recovery
Prior to the special protective case, tire production and export data from China, the proportion of exports accounted for the total output of more than 60% of the domestic part is relatively small, the proportion of exports in 2007 is up to 62.02% in 2008 under the impact of the global financial crisis and the tire export trade by a certain impact, but the proportion of exports remained at the 56% level. In 2009, the tire export restricted by the special protective case, the proportion of exports suddenly dropped by 10 percentage points to 45.55%, after 2010, the domestic tire production in 2011 a larger growth rate, but the proportion of exports only rebounded slightly to 47.41 percent, 48.07 %. Look at the proportion of Chinese tires share of the U.S. tire imports, in 2009, this proportion is 25.25%, by 2011 the proportion of steep drop to 15.81% as of July this year, data display Chinese tires accounted for the proportion of the U.S. tire imports have recovered to 32 % nearby.
Analyze the reasons, first, resulting in China’s tire exports accounted for in large part because of the decline in the proportion of U.S. imports from the purposes of the special protective case, Chinese tire industry is a direct result of excess capacity of 12%, showing that the U.S. tire market exports, China’s tire exports form of influence is enormous. Second, beginning in 2011, the proportion of domestic tire exports rebounded slightly larger increase in the total proportion of U.S. imports, which can be considered to be the result of U.S. market demand to expand, to revive the U.S. auto market in 2010, will be expanded on tire demand, 2011 The annual car sales rose 10.3% year-on-year increase in 2012 is expected to be 12.5%, according to the Rubber Manufacturers Association and the Ministry of Commerce statistics, the 2011 passenger cars, light and medium truck tires on the trade deficit rose from 5.8% to 6.18%, 2011, from January to September 2012, the average increase in U.S. light vehicle sales of nearly 11%, 14%, and the increase in U.S. demand weakened the impact of the special protective case, at present, China is still the U.S. tire imports superpower.
Figure 9: Chinese tire production is exported (Unit: one hundred million) annual data
Source: WIND Securities Futures Research Department
Figure 10: China tire share of U.S. imports of tires (Unit: Article)
Source: China rubber trade network card Futures Research Department
Figure 11: U.S. light vehicle sales (units: vehicles)
Source: WIND Securities Futures Research Department
Figure 12: Chinese tire export data (Unit: Article)
Source: China rubber trade network card Futures Research Department
Special protective case in the end of September this year, officially ending look at data from tire production, tire production in Shandong province 9 monthly production chain rose 30.5%, 1-9 monthly production ring than the growth rate of more than 27%. In addition, the Qingdao Customs statistics show that Shandong ports tire exports in September to 13.89 million, an increase of 9.1%, and export tires for the first three quarters of Shandong ports 120,000,000, an increase of 16.4% over the same period last year; valued at $ 6.53 billion, an increase of 16.6%. It is reported that after the September 26 expiration of the U.S. “safeguard” their tariffs reduced to 4%, the largest markets as the Chinese tire exports, Shandong enterprises on the U.S. tire export orders growing steadily. In addition, national tire 9 monthly production year and the chain are showing increased to varying degrees, which rings downward trend than break for two consecutive months, the month rose 4.89%, the month rose slightly to 2.3% year-on-year, and cumulative or 4%. Overall, the domestic tire production data presented signs of getting better and better.
Figure 13: Shandong tire production (unit: Article)
Figure 14: National tire production (unit: Article)
Source: WIND Securities Futures Research Department
3.3. Seasonal factors still exist but boost weak than expected
3.3.1. Automobile consumption to pick up weaker than expected
The domestic market, historical data show that the domestic car market “golden nine silver ten” seasonal warmer probability. From September this year, the domestic auto production and sales data analysis, month auto sales were 1,660,900, 1,617,400, and 10.6% qoq, 8.2% of the apparent rebound in line with seasonal warmer law data from the same period last year, the increase in production limited, only 3.68%, and sales year-on-year there has been a slight decline of 1.74 percent compared with September 2011 sales year-on-year increase of 5.74%, it is weak so. This shows that the domestic automobile market showing seasonal consumption trends, but the warmer season performance somewhat less than in the past years, lower than market expectations.
Figure 15: China’s auto production and sales volume (unit: 10,000)
Figure 16: Change Data domestic auto production and sales (unit:%)
Source: WIND Securities Futures Research Department
U.S. market, WardsAuto volume of output in the fourth quarter of 2012 is expected from a month ago raised 26,000 vehicles, to 3,714,000, up 8.3% year-on-year in 2011. This year production is expected to reach 15.3 million, compared to 13.08 million in 2011, an increase of 16.9%, mainly due to the increase in production of General Motors Corp. and Nissan offset the reduction of Chrysler, Ford, and Volkswagen. U.S. light-vehicle sales year-on-year in September remained larger increase of about 12.8%, while the ring comparative decline in September last year, has expanded from the historical data analysis. Overall, the moderate recovery trend in the U.S. auto market does not change.
Figure 17: The three major U.S. car manufacturers production (units: vehicles)
Figure 18: U.S. light vehicle sales (units: vehicles)
Source: WIND Securities Futures Research Department
Overall, the global automobile market in September fundamentals show a warming trend, the European auto market despite weak September qoq to maintain positive growth in the U.S. auto market to maintain a moderate upward trend, a rebound in the Chinese auto market is also seasonal role, but the overall pick up the degree, compared to the market pre-period slightly weaker.
3.3.2. The domestic Shouchu superimposed industrial policy bullish
Following the September 30 billion baht of Thai government the rubber Shouchu plan, China also reported natural rubber purchasing and storage plan, alleged the State Reserve Bureau of purchasing and storage of natural rubber plan basically decided, a total of about 2.5 million tons, including sea plastic Group 12,000 tons, 02,000 tons, Sinochem International, and the rest from the futures stock purchasing and storage, it is learned that the reserve price of 24,600 yuan / ton (including freight). Domestic inventory data from the current analysis, Qingdao Free Trade Zone, the natural rubber stock as of October 20 to 17 million tons, at historically high levels; inventory data published in the previous period to 59,793 tons as of October 26, the inventory to maintain the rise since late August trends, current inventory compared with the same period last year growth of 131.90 percent, warehouse receipts registered an increase of 118.19%. The rumors Shouchu 2.5 million tons on the high natural rubber stocks currently in, or is not done enough, but easing Nongken pressure, but 11,000 tons purchased from the futures market, the futures a certain market bulls strength, market or a bullish factor.
Figure 19: Qingdao Free Trade Zone, the natural rubber stock (Unit: tonne)
Figure 20: Shanghai rubber futures Inventory (unit: tons)
Source: WIND Securities Futures Research Department
4. , November outlook information
From the October natural rubber fundamentals data terminal consumption improvement than expected but the magnitude and speed of slightly poor.November, First of all, the purpose of the tire industry, facing the side is the good news of the expiry of the U.S. special safeguard case, the other side is green EU tire labeling bill will impact and tests, while the latter will become the market The main object of concern, but the actual impact remains to be market tested. Secondly, the car to the countryside favorable policies remain unfulfilled, there are also expected, purchasing and storage rumors or superimposed bullish producing countries industrial policy.Finally, despite the small domestic automobile growth, but the seasonal peak season is yet to end, on the bottom of the price of natural rubber has a supporting role.
Comprehensive look, we maintain the perspective of the fourth quarter, natural rubber on the center of gravity is still expected to form shock shift. Although labeling laws enacted or become the biggest threat in November, but the end of the U.S. special protective case or moderate to offset the drag on the EU labeling law formed, the other from the macro level, the domestic economy has bottomed out signal the United States to maintain the recovery state, Europe is expected to worst The period has been in the past, but also the global release of liquidity to support the formation, it is expected that the macro drag will also weakening fundamentals automotive consumer overall not too optimistic, but China is still in the peak consumption season, and the natural rubber industry policy still purchasing and storage and car The countryside the expected present, the fundamentals are weak, but other information concealed, still not the focus of market attention. Comprehensive analysis of the expected November natural rubber or present pressure shocks trend of slow recovery in the rest of October, objectives or 27,000 yuan.
Translated by Google Translator from http://market.cria.org.cn/20/11156.html
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