Aluminium on MCX settled down 0.61% at 130.50 on fresh selling tracking weakness from LME aluminium fell to $1,846/mt on Thursday, a low since January 22, before it closed at $1,849.5/mt. As the US dollar remains at highs, the aluminum price has been fluctuating between around $50/ton above and below a median of $1,900 for several months now.
There is considerable uncertainty as to where it is going to go in 2019, yet some commentators, such as ING Bank, are predicting prices will hit U.S. $2,250/ton by the end of the year on the back of constrained supply.
The longer uncertainty goes on, the more of a drain it will be on investment and the potential for continued positive growth in H2 and next year. For now, the U.S., China, emerging markets and even Europe appear to remain in positive GDP growth mode.
The US dollar index fell on Thursday, weighed by a string of disappointing US data, with retail sales recording their biggest drop in nine years in December and weekly jobless claims registering an increase.
Also China on Thursday reported exports and imports data for January that beat expectations. China’s exports in January were expected to have contracted 3.3% from a year earlier, compared with the previous month’s 4.4% decline.
Now a day ahead Economic data slated for release today include China’s consumer and producer prices for January, the eurozone’s trade balance for December, the US’ import prices, industrial output for January, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index for February and weekly oil rig count from Baker Hughes.
Trading Ideas:
–Aluminium trading range for the day is 129.4-132.4.
–Aluminium settled down as investors hung on for any hint of progress in the latest Sino-U.S. tariff talks.
–China’s aluminium exports surged to an all-time high of 552,000 tonnes in January.
Source: Commodityonline.com
