Since the fourth quarter of 2018, the carbon black market price has been weakening all the way, and corporate profit margins have been continuously compressed under the trend of easy decline and difficult rise. Until the second half of 2020, the carbon black industry will counterattack, and its performance will include price cliffs and corporate profit margins. Constantly climbing and so on, then what is the supporting point behind it?
From January to May of 2020, due to public health incidents, crude oil plummeting and other factors, the supply and demand of carbon black have both fallen. The price of carbon black continues to fall at a low level and tends to decline; from the beginning of June to the end of November, the market price of carbon black has four rounds The accumulative growth rate is 2900-3200 yuan/ton, and the price of carbon black has risen from a low level to a normal high level. As of December 1st, the closing price of domestic carbon black N330 cash exchange market: Shandong market self-delivery 7000-7400 yuan/ton, Shanxi market self-delivery 6900-7100 yuan/ton.
What are the reasons behind the soaring carbon black market price from June to November?
First, the supply of carbon black production enterprises is tight: the low inventory of carbon black enterprises superimposes the increase of industry start-up load, and the shortage of carbon black is the main reason for the increase in carbon black prices. According to Zhuo Chuang’s statistics, the operating load and inventory of the carbon black industry remained low in November: The average operating load of domestic carbon black companies in November was 66.69%, an increase of 1.69 percentage points from the previous month and 7.92 percentage points from the same period last year; domestic carbon black corporate inventories The volume was 113,000 tons, down 3.29% from the previous month and 62.63% from the same period last year. The second half of 2020 is approaching the end of the “13th Five-Year Plan” and the blue sky defense battle. The air pollution control policy requirements for the autumn and winter of 2020-2021 are particularly strict. The areas involved include the main carbon black producing areas: Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding areas, Fenwei In the plains, the Yangtze River Delta, etc., the companies involved require production limits ranging from 2% to 50%, and the carbon black industry has affected nearly 2.8 million tons of capacity.
Second, the downstream demand is steadily recovering: The demand for automobiles and tires is improving, so that the demand for carbon black in the second half of the year exceeds market expectations, forming a strong support for the price increase of carbon black. In October 2020, my country’s automobile production and sales increased by 11.0% and 12.5% year-on-year respectively. As of October, automobile production and sales have achieved year-on-year growth for seven consecutive months. At the same time, tire export orders have been steadily restored to support the high continuity of tire factory operations. According to Zhuo Chuang’s statistics, the demand for carbon black from June to October 2020 increased by nearly 120,000 tons compared with the same period last year, while the output of carbon black companies fell by 47,600 tons. .
Third, the price of coal tar is warming up: the rebound in the price of coal tar, the main raw material for carbon black production, has obvious mentality support for the rise of carbon black prices. In June, the mainstream price of coal tar in the main producing areas increased by 300-500 yuan/ton. In the fourth quarter, with the withdrawal of 4.3-meter coke ovens in some areas, the tight supply of coal tar has been aggravated. Since September, the domestic high-temperature coal tar market 10 Weekly prices kept rising, with only a slight correction in one week. As of December 1, the mainstream reference in Shandong and Jiangsu regions was 2770 yuan/ton, and a small part of high-end reference was 2800-2820 yuan/ton, all in cash; Taiyuan, Luliang, Shanxi The mainstream reference is 2850-2910 yuan/ton in cash, and the Linfen area is priced at 2910 yuan/ton for acceptance.
profit
The carbon black industry has suffered large losses in the past two years, and the profit margin of the industry will gradually expand after the transfer to June 2020. According to Zhuochuang’s statistics, the average profit of N330 carbon black companies in Shanxi from January to November 2020 increased by 519.33 yuan/ton compared to last year, of which the average profit in November was 844.81 yuan/ton, and the profit margin is expected to expand to 1,500 yuan/ton in December. Above, some high-end brands have higher profit margins.
The main reason for the continuous expansion of the profit margin of the carbon black industry after June is that the price increase of carbon black is greater than the increase of carbon black cost passed on by the increase of coal tar price. From the beginning of June to the end of November 2020, the domestic coal tar mainstream will increase by 750-1100 yuan/ton, and the cost of carbon black will increase by 1125-1815 yuan/ton, while the price of carbon black will increase by 2900-3200 yuan/ton in the same time period. Ton.
prediction
On the whole, carbon black market prices are still strong in the short term, and there may still be room for upside in the market outlook, and there is still room for corporate profits to expand in the short term. In terms of raw materials: Shanxi, Hebei, and Henan still have a 4.3-meter coke oven phase-out plan in December. In addition, coking companies have cut production capacity of nearly 16.29 million tons in the fourth quarter. The supply of coal tar is still tight. The price may remain high in December. The impact of carbon black industry pricing is mainly supported by a strong mentality; on the demand side: the domestic tire demand market has gradually entered the traditional off-season, while the tight export shipping and the obvious increase in freight rates have also caused a certain drag on tire exports. Within a reasonable range, the intention to lower the start-up under the support of the replenishment just a year ago is not strong, and the short-term performance may be a continuous high start, and the demand for carbon black is relatively strong. It is expected that a buffer period of more than two months will be required for carbon black inventory to increase to a normal level. Supply and demand performance Those who benefit from the carbon black industry may still be priced.
Translated by Google Translator from http://www.cria.org.cn/newsdetail/57514.html
