China Mainstream Market Natural Rubber Weekly Average Price
Unit: RMB/mt
|
Market |
Shanghai |
Shandong |
Yunnan |
||
|
Grade |
SCRWF |
SVR3L mixed |
RSS3 |
STR20 mixed |
SCR10 |
|
This week |
12,640 |
12,670 |
16,360 |
12,010 |
11,795 |
|
Last week |
12,520 |
12,600 |
16,375 |
12,040 |
11,830 |
|
Change |
+120.00 |
+70.00 |
-15.00 |
-30.00 |
-35.00 |
|
Change rate |
+0.96% |
+0.56% |
-0.09% |
-0.25% |
-0.30% |
USD-Denominated Market Price of Natural Rubber
Unit: $/mt
|
Grade |
STR20 spot |
SMR20 spot |
STR20 mixed spot |
STR20 cargo |
STR20 mixed cargo |
SVR3L mixed cargo |
|
This week |
1,698 |
1,693 |
1,646 |
1,700 |
1,663 |
1,704 |
|
Last week |
1,681 |
1,674 |
1,647 |
1,705 |
1,665 |
1,716 |
|
Change |
+17.00 |
+19.00 |
-1.00 |
-5.00 |
-2.00 |
-12.00 |
|
Change rate |
+1.01% |
+1.14% |
-0.06% |
-0.29% |
-0.12% |
-0.70% |
Market Review
SCI NR price index was 1,022.88 points as of September 15, up 26.07 or 2.62% from a week ago. This week, the supply-demand fundamentals of natural rubber market were relatively stable. Shanghai natural rubber futures prices rebounded from low levels, slightly lifting the natural rubber spot prices.
This week, Shanghai natural rubber futures prices rebounded. The price of RU2201 increased to over RMB 13,800/mt from RMB 13,200/mt. The weekly average price of RU2201 was RMB 13,669/mt, up RMB 72/mt or 0.53% from a week ago. The weekly average price of NR2111 was RMB 10,982/mt, up RMB 318/mt or 2.98% from a week ago. RU2201 closed Thursday at RMB 13,830/mt, up RMB 510/mt from a week ago. NR2111 price was RMB 11,100/mt on Thursday, up RMB 630/mt from a week ago.
This week, the overall Shanghai natural rubber futures prices rebounded but still hovered at lows. Besides, the tepid demand still exerted bearish impacts on Shanghai natural rubber futures prices.
Market Forecast
Next week, Shanghai natural rubber dominant contract prices will fluctuate in the range of RMB 13,000-14,000/mt.
Supply: As for China’s domestic supply, the release of new field latex underperforms due to the heavy rainfall, and there will be limited increment in import arrivals. Accordingly, the spot inventory will remain low. As for the foreign supply, the natural rubber output will gradually rise. On the whole, the low inventory will give support to the natural rubber market, but the overall natural rubber supply will gradually rise with the new rubber output increment and import arrivals.
Demand: Tire enterprises will be restarted in succession, but it will be tough for operating rate to further rise in response to the tepid demand and holidays. Moreover, sales in China’s domestic market and export market will be average, and the increment in replacement tire market will be limited. Besides, the tire inventory remains high, and the operating rate of the tire industry is unstable. Accordingly, it will be tough for the demand from the tire industry to rise.
Although Shanghai natural rubber future prices rebound, but it is estimated that Shanghai natural rubber futures prices will go down in the future, as the supply-demand imbalance will be severe and the impacts of low inventory will be limited. SCI reckons that Shanghai natural rubber dominant contract prices will fluctuate in the range of RMB 13,000-14,000/mt.
Source: SCI99
