MARKET COMMENTARY
Following five successive sessions of decline, NMCE rubber futures bounced back on Tuesday tracking a late rebound in the overseas market amidst lingering worries over supplies. The most active August rubber futures rose during the afternoon trades to 2.48 per cent higher. In the physical market too, RSS4 rose following an initial dip. The grade is likely to extend gains on Wednesday too tracking sharp rise in the overseas market. However, on the flipside, widening difference between the quotes prevailing in Indian and overseas market is likely to cap gains. Natural rubber prices jumped in the international market on Wednesday on expectations that top consumer China may take on measures to spur growth. TOCOM rubber futures rebounded from the two week low gaining over four per cent. SHFE rubber futures rose as well. Yet, IRSG has estimated market surplus of 92000-284000 tonnes for the current year, which is likely to ponder upon.
MARKET NEWS
According to International Rubber Study Group, natural rubber surplus for 2013 is likely to be at 92000-284000 tonnes. World consumption of natural rubber is seen rising by 2.0-5.0 per cent compared to the previous estimate of 2.3-5.9 per cent rise.
Thailand, the world’s biggest rubber producer and exporter, is asking other major producers Malaysia and Indonesia to help it set a benchmark rubber export price, which has fallen by almost a fifth since its peak this year due to weak demand.
Rubber inventories in Qingdao, China’s main hub for the commodity fell to 330,300 metric tons today, from 341,900 tons on June 28 according to the Qingdao International Rubber Exchange.
The Rubber Board sets target of bringing 4.5 lakh hectares of land under rubber cultivation in the north eastern region.
According to Rubber Board, natural rubber imports into India fell 4.97 percent on year to 19,695 tonnes in June, while production also fell 12.9 percent to 54,000 tonnes in the same period. Consumption declined 2.3 percent to 82,000 tonnes in June.
Car sales in India fell for a record eighth month in row in June with a dip of 9.0 percent as economic slowdown and low consumer sentiments continue to hit demand.
TECHNICAL VIEW
RUBBER Aug NMCE
The bounce back towards 18700 regions witnessed in the previous session is likely to extend for the day but, requires clearing and sustaining 19000 to strengthen the prevailing positive sentiments. Alternatively, a direct fall below 18400 may see some lower corrective moves and such moves extending beyond 18000 will induce weakness.
TURNAROUND
| Resistances | LEVELS | Supports |
| 18850/19000 | 19000-18400-18000 | 18400/18200 |
| 19250/19500 | 18100-18000 | |
| 19630-19750 | 17850/17650 |
Source: Geojit Comtrade
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