MARKET COMMENTARY
RSS4 steadied while latex (drc 60%) continued its uptrend in the Indian market on Wednesday. Limited arrivals, worries over production owing to heavy rains in the major rubber growing areas in Kerala along with steep rise in natural rubber prices on TOCOM and SHFE exchanges provided firm support to the commodity. On NMCE, the grade was seen trimming the initial gains to end the session tad higher while in the physical market movement was rather flat following an initial rise. Yet, widening difference between prices in local market and that in the top natural rubber producing countries capped gains. In the mean time, TOCOM and SHFE rubber futures are seen stretching the previous day’s gains on Thursday while in the spot markets, the commodity remains near the multi year lows.
MARKET NEWS
According to International Rubber Study Group, natural rubber surplus for 2013 is likely to be at 92000-284000 tonnes. World consumption of natural rubber is seen rising by 2.0-5.0 per cent compared to the previous estimate of 2.3-5.9 per cent rise.
Thailand, the world’s biggest rubber producer and exporter, is asking other major producers Malaysia and Indonesia to help it set a benchmark rubber export price, which has fallen by almost a fifth since its peak this year due to weak demand.
Rubber inventories in Qingdao, China’s main hub for the commodity fell to 330,300 metric tons today, from 341,900 tons on June 28 according to the Qingdao International Rubber Exchange.
The Rubber Board sets target of bringing 4.5 lakh hectares of land under rubber cultivation in the north eastern region.
According to Rubber Board, natural rubber imports into India fell 4.97 percent on year to 19,695 tonnes in June, while production also fell 12.9 percent to 54,000 tonnes in the same period. Consumption declined 2.3 percent to 82,000 tonnes in June.
Car sales in India fell for a record eighth month in row in June with a dip of 9.0 percent as economic slowdown and low consumer sentiments continue to hit demand.
TECHNICAL VIEW
RUBBER Aug NMCE
Prices failed to clear the stiff resistance at 19000 in the previous session and dipped. Even as the trend stays positive, it requires clearing and sustaining the same to continue further upsides. Else, lower corrective moves to 18500-18400 ranges are likely, below which weakness may start to creep in. Still, major downside may be witnessed only below 18000.
TURNAROUND
|
Resistances |
LEVELS |
Supports |
|
19000/19250 |
19000-18400-18000 |
18580/18400 |
|
19500-19630 |
|
18200-18100 |
|
19750-19800 |
|
18000/17850 |
Source: Geojit Comtrade
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