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China Natural Rubber Mainstream Grade Market Price (unit: RMB/mt) |
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Date |
Shanghai SCRWF |
Shanghai SVR 3L mixed |
Shandong RSS 3 |
Yunnan SCR 10 |
|
Aug 9, 2024 |
14,300-14,400 |
14,600-14,650 |
18,400-19,150 |
13,250-13,350 |
|
Aug 12, 2024 |
14,250-14,350 |
14,550-14,600 |
18,350-19,100 |
13,200-13,350 |
|
Aug 13, 2024 |
14,400-14,550 |
14,700-14,700 |
18,500-19,250 |
13,450-13,650 |
|
Aug 14, 2024 |
14,250-14,400 |
14,550-14,550 |
18,450-19,450 |
13,400-13,500 |
|
Aug 15, 2024 |
14,350-14,500 |
14,650-14,700 |
18,550-19,600 |
13,500-13,600 |
|
Avg. last week |
14,130.00 |
14,475.00 |
18,420.00 |
13,225.00 |
|
Avg. this week |
14,375.00 |
14,625.00 |
18,880.00 |
13,425.00 |
|
Change rate |
+1.73% |
+1.04% |
+2.50% |
+1.51% |
|
Change |
+245.00 |
+150.00 |
+460.00 |
+200.00 |
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Natural Rubber Import Market Price (unit: $/mt, RMB/mt) |
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Date |
STR 20 spot |
SMR 20 spot |
STR 20 mixed spot |
STR 20 cargo |
STR 20 mixed cargo |
SVR 3L mixed cargo |
STR 20 mixed |
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Aug 8, 2024 |
1,740-1,755 |
1,735-1,750 |
1,750-1,760 |
1,750-1,780 |
1,755-1,780 |
1,775-1,775 |
14,200-14,300 |
|
Aug 9, 2024 |
1,755-1,760 |
1,750-1,755 |
1,755-1,765 |
1,760-1,780 |
1,760-1,780 |
1,780-1,790 |
14,300-14,400 |
|
Aug 12, 2024 |
1,765-1,770 |
1,760-1,765 |
1,765-1,775 |
1,770-1,790 |
1,770-1,790 |
1,800-1,800 |
14,350-14,400 |
|
Aug 13, 2024 |
1,770-1,780 |
1,765-1,775 |
1,765-1,775 |
1,770-1,800 |
1,770-1,800 |
1,800-1,800 |
14,350-14,400 |
|
Aug 14, 2024 |
1,750-1,765 |
1,745-1,760 |
1,760-1,770 |
1,760-1,780 |
1,770-1,780 |
1,775-1,775 |
14,200-14,300 |
|
Avg. last week |
1,724.50 |
1,716.50 |
1,739.50 |
1,744.50 |
1,747.00 |
1,749.00 |
14,140.00 |
|
Avg. this week |
1,761.00 |
1,756.00 |
1,764.00 |
1,774.00 |
1,775.50 |
1,787.00 |
14,320.00 |
|
Change rate |
+2.12% |
+2.30% |
+1.41% |
+1.69% |
+1.63% |
+2.17% |
+1.27% |
|
Change |
+36.50 |
+39.50 |
+24.50 |
+29.50 |
+28.50 |
+38.00 |
+180.00 |
Market Review
Prices of RMB-denominated natural rubber spot resources climbed this week. Within this week, prices of Shanghai natural rubber futures trended sideways after ascending. The supply and demand of natural rubber changed slightly. Thus, the spot price of natural rubber perked up, in tandem with rising futures prices. Currently, rainfalls in China’s domestic producing areas curbed the output release of new field latex. In overseas producing areas, the purchase price of filed latex remained high. The cost still underpinned the natural rubber price from the bottom. However, as seen from domestic spot market, amid weak orders, downstream users showed resistance to high-priced feedstock. Therefore, the overall trading atmosphere stayed insipid. Only a few downstream enterprises purchased feedstock when its price was low.
Market Forecast
Forecast: China’s natural rubber market may continue to fluctuate strongly next week. In the short run, the sluggish release of supply may be the main driver affecting the natural rubber price. In China’s and overseas producing areas, the output release of new field latex may be insufficient. The purchase price of feedstock in producing areas may continue to stay high. Besides, coupled with low spot inventory, the overall natural rubber price may be bolstered from the bottom. Meanwhile, as seen from the demand, seasonal demand slack season and high cost may hardly drive up the overall consumption of natural rubber. In the short run, the natural rubber price may remain firm. It is estimated that the weekly average price of SCRWF in Shanghai may be RMB 14,400/mt, and its mainstream prices may be in the range of RMB 14,200-14,700/mt next week. Players should pay attention to influence of commodity co-movement from the external macro environment as well as the disturbance of weather on output release of new field latex.
Supply: In the short run, the output release of new field latex may fall short of expectations in China’s and overseas main producing areas. Constant rainfalls in Yunnan may curb the output release of new field latex. In overseas market, the purchase price of feedstock may fluctuate at highs, and the natural rubber inventory in China is likely to stay low. The supply may bolster the natural rubber price from the bottom.
Demand: During the demand slack season, some enterprises may cut or halt production, weighing down the operating rate. Besides, the feedstock cost may stay high. Therefore, in the short run, downstream demand may hardly improve, failing to bolster the natural rubber price.
