MARKET COMMENTARY
Bolstered by a rise in import duty on natural rubber and concerns over output, natural rubber prices were on the greener turf last week. RSS4 jumped towards its strongest level since mid-October and was hovering near Rs.163 a kg towards the close of the week. NMCE rubber futures rallied as well, to post gains for the third successive week. The commodity is probably on its course to culminate the year with mild gains after posting declines in last two years. In the international market, meanwhile, it is heading to post year losses. TOCOM rubber futures are likely to post yearly losses of eight per cent this year. As this year’s session culminates today, TOCOM and SHFE rubber futures are in red weighed down by rising stockpiles in China. However, activities narrowed down ahead of the New Year holidays.
MARKET NEWS
Crude rubber stockpiles held at Japanese warehouses rose 3.6 percent to 11,965 metric tons on Dec. 20, according to data from the Rubber Trade Association of Japan.
Rubber inventories in the warehouses monitored by SHFE rose to 174498 tonnes last week, its highest level since 2004.
Data from Thai Ministry of Commerce showed that the country’s rubber exports in November jumped 35 per cent to 340497 tonnes.
According to Vietnam’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, rubber exports in December seen at 126,000 tons.
India raises import duty on natural rubber 20 per cent or Rs.30, whichever is lower from the existing 20 per cent or Rs.20, whichever is lower.
Rubber inventories in Qingdao, China’s main hub for the commodity, advanced for a third week to 282,700 tons from 276,300 tons at the end of November, according to the Qingdao International Rubber Exchange.
According to a report appeared on Bloomberg, China, the largest rubber consumer, bought 87,200 metric tons for government stockpiles
Natural rubber imports by India in November declined 4.57 per cent to 22872 tonnes on year on year basis. Production dropped as well, by 7.1 per cent to 91000 during the same period.
TECHNICAL VIEW
RUBBER Jan NMCE While the trend stays on the greener turf, a mild consolidation is being witnessed after the recent up run. Now, a direct rise above the immediate resistance of 16700 could take prices further higher to 16850 or even more. Inability to clear the same may see sideways movement with a possibility to correct lower to 16500-16350 levels before bouncing back.
TURNAROUND
|
Resistances |
LEVELS |
Supports |
|
16700/16850 |
16850-16700-16350 |
16500/16350 |
|
16960/17050 |
|
16260/16150 |
|
17250/17400 |
|
16040/15900 |
Source: Geojit Comtrade
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