MARKET COMMENTARY
Natural rubber continued to be on a firm footing in the Indian market on Monday. RSS4 in the physical market inched up to a two and a half month high and is probably on its course to post mild annual gains after two successive years of decline. The grade inched up on NMCE as well. Worries that lower domestic natural rubber output despite it being the peak production phase and anticipation of further rise in prices propped up prices. However, activities may probably slow down ahead of the New Year. Moreover, consecutive holidays in the major international markets may also weigh upon the sentiments. Barring SHFE, other major natural rubber markets are closed for New Year holidays, starting today.
MARKET NEWS
Crude rubber stockpiles held at Japanese warehouses rose 3.6 percent to 11,965 metric tons on Dec. 20, according to data from the Rubber Trade Association of Japan.
Rubber inventories in the warehouses monitored by SHFE rose to 174498 tonnes last week, its highest level since 2004.
Data from Thai Ministry of Commerce showed that the country’s rubber exports in November jumped 35 per cent to 340497 tonnes.
According to Vietnam’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, rubber exports in December seen at 126,000 tons.
India raises import duty on natural rubber 20 per cent or Rs.30, whichever is lower from the existing 20 per cent or Rs.20, whichever is lower.
Rubber inventories in Qingdao, China’s main hub for the commodity, advanced for a third week to 282,700 tons from 276,300 tons at the end of November, according to the Qingdao International Rubber Exchange.
According to a report appeared on Bloomberg, China, the largest rubber consumer, bought 87,200 metric tons for government stockpiles
Natural rubber imports by India in November declined 4.57 per cent to 22872 tonnes on year on year basis. Production dropped as well, by 7.1 per cent to 91000 during the same period.
TECHNICAL VIEW
Even as the trend stays positive, inability to clear the stiff resistance at 16850 could call for a corrective dip to 16500 or even more to 16350 before bouncing back. However, a direct rise above 16850 with sturdy volumes could lift prices to 17050 or more.
TURNAROUND
|
Resistances |
LEVELS |
Supports |
|
16800-16850 |
16850-16500-16350 |
16620-16500 |
|
16960/17050 |
|
16350/16260 |
|
17250/17400 |
|
16150/16040 |
Source: Geojit Comtrade
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