MARKET COMMENTARY
RSS4 weakened in the local markets last week after its recent up run towards two and a half month high. The commodity was seen reversing its earlier gains and dropped towards one week lows towards the close of the week in the physical market. Lethargy in chasing prices at higher levels and lacklustre demand pressurized prices to correct lower. Weak sentiments in the overseas market weighed on the sentiments too. On NMCE, the benchmark February rubber posted a weekly loss for the first time in four weeks.
As the week’s session commences, TOCOM rubber futures tumbled as it reopened today after the New Year holidays. The benchmark June rubber futures shed about four per cent per cent on concerns over demand from China as stockpiles rose to a nine year high. SHFE and AFET were seen stretching losses as well.
MARKET NEWS
Rubber inventories in the warehouses monitored by SHFE rises to nine year high. Weekly data showed stockpiles rose 0.9 per cent to 176027 tonnes.
Natural-rubber output from growers representing 93 per cent of global production estimated to expand to 11.15 mln tons in 2013 on growth in Thailand, Indonesia and China, according to Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries. Output in Vietnam estimated to jump 21 per cent to 1.04 mln tons in 2013, overtaking Malaysia as the third-largest producer.
Indonesia sees 2013 natural rubber output to be at 3.18 million tonnes against 3.04 million tonnes produced in 2012.
Crude rubber stockpiles held at Japanese warehouses rose 3.6 percent to 11,965 metric tons on Dec. 20, according to data from the Rubber Trade Association of Japan.
Data from Thai Ministry of Commerce showed that the country’s rubber exports in November jumped 35 per cent to 340497 tonnes.
According to Vietnam’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, rubber exports in December seen at 126,000 tons.
India raises import duty on natural rubber 20 per cent or Rs.30, whichever is lower from the existing 20 per cent or Rs.20, whichever is lower.
TECHNICAL VIEW
RUBBER Feb NMCE
While there exists weakness, pullback towards 16350 ranges cannot be ruled out before resuming its downside and slippage past 15850 ranges could push the commodity into the bear camp. A rise above 16550 is necessary to bring about a positive bias.
TURNAROUND
|
Resistances |
LEVELS |
Supports |
|
16200/16400 |
16550-15850 |
16050-15900 |
|
16550/16700 |
|
15850/15670 |
|
16840/16970 |
|
15580-15500 |
Source: Geojit Comtrade
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