January 2014 trend analysis of natural and synthetic rubber

Market Review

Natural rubber:

December, rubber futures trend highs. China November PMI better than expected, driven by rumors of purchasing and storage of natural rubber shock rise. However, with the actual number is far below market expectations purchasing and storage, and the Fed announced QE and gradually withdraw from the outer disk bearish bias, and is accelerating downward shift HuJiao signs. Before the end, the central bank reverse repo and injected 200 billion curb early signs of tight money for HuJiao no support, the market appears eight Lianyin.

Futures rise after turning downward shock have driven spot market prices. Due to revenue reserves far less than expected support for the natural rubber market is difficult to play, while spot prices fell HuJiao also fell. Since then, the mid-producing country after another stop cutting and downstream plants, although small quantities of stocking was led to the spot price rise. However, by the end of August Lianyin HuJiao there again restrain, but based on stocking hope, cheap shipping businesses will not high, only offer a slight decline.

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Synthetic rubber:

December, synthetic rubber prices vulnerable atmosphere throughout the whole story. Increasingly high raw material butadiene actuation petrochemical manufacturers push up rubber futures rose for the offer of course play a catalytic However, due to continued sluggish turnover, and because of increasingly high butadiene and HuJiao that constantly fall down and close since mid- 18000, synthetic rubber in the supply and demand has not turned weak downward pressure relief, trading is also synchronized downturn. Although the end of the month because of tight resources to support the market and there is a narrow improving, but still rather high resistance big deal.

Trend Analysis

Natural rubber: the year is approaching, the domestic rubber market weakness see effective change in the pattern of converting the short term.Peripheral macro side is still no significant improvement in terms of the current local debt crisis is still China’s current invisible bomb can not be ignored, but market liquidity also exists a little problem, although the central bank injected 200 billion in mid-month, money was tight curb signs, the central bank has to use Short-term liquidity adjustment tool (SLO) regulate market liquidity, but the problem has not been effectively resolved the 1st, we still can not go look optimistic outlook. And near the end of the year, the inter-bank repo market interest rates again pledged broad, seven-day repurchase rate to 8.9221%. This indicates a lack of funds in the market than expected level of deep, systemic stress caused by a shortage of funds market is not yet released. At the same time the pattern of domestic stock inventory continuing high rate, according to The Rubber Economist Ltd.’s An e-mail report, output growth is greater than the rubber consumption in 2014, or the size of the global natural rubber surplus will expand the scale of excess or climbed from 2013’s 336,000 tons to 366,000 tons. Overcapacity further magnify the natural rubber market for disadvantaged undoubtedly worse. New Year approaching, some traders to sell at low prices weighed on the market price before the holiday, the market reflects the number of traders who do not want to warehouse full seasons, so the rubber before the holiday or the possibility of dropping further.

Synthetic rubber: butadiene subsequent weakness, increasing the supply or price trend will change.

Follows:

Butadiene: Butadiene prices in December Xianyanghouyi. Into January, external disk available for limited resources, some downstream enterprises to resume operation or reserves monomer prices will have to play a supporting, butadiene prices are expected to uplift, however, due to the lower end part of the tire business is about to enter the holiday, also slowing demand The reaction is bound to the monomer, butadiene gains will be limited.

Supply: January, butadiene rubber blessing will not resume operation, while its SBR unit also has delayed start, but other manufacturers more than a normal operation, only part of the SBR system load is low, the concrete as shown in the following table:

January 2014 domestic synthetic rubber plant dynamics

 Requirements: Tire December to inventory reserves based, individual enterprises to step up pre-production of export orders, tire companies operating rate declined slightly compared to the previous month. This month, finished goods inventory cycle tire 20-30 days, raw materials inventory cycle in 15-20 days, corporate orders only bias tires and semi-steel tire maintain good cycle in 15-20 days; steel tire business orders cycle in about 15 days. Treasure Island forecasts, Jan. tire operating rates will continue to decrease in 2014 due to the Chinese New Year earlier, some small businesses will tire early holiday, we recommend early January dealer reserves to prepare for the replacement tire market before the holiday.

Into January, butadiene stabilized and have slowly improved synthesis vendors intention to push market prices are favorable, small synthetic rubber prices are expected to rise, while the amount of trading volume for stocking presence there will be actuated. However, with the Lunar New Year holidays approaching businesses resulting in delisting and downstream enterprises holiday, but due to weak natural rubber and downstream enterprises is not high stocking wishes after all, market transactions will gradually slow down, but this time will reflect the cost of raw materials support, Price or stalemate.

Translated by Google Translator from http://market.cria.org.cn/25/18660.html