MARKET COMMENTARY
RSS4 weakened in the Indian markets on Wednesday with prices dropping to its weakest level in about four weeks. In the physical market, the grade slipped to Rs.158.50 a kg on lacklustre buying interest from the major consuming industries. On NMCE, rubber futures lost more than two per cent to settle down near its lowest level since mid-December. In the meantime, natural rubber prices are seen inching up in the overseas market on Thursday following the recent steep plunges. TOCOM rubber futures were up more than one per cent. Robust economic indicators from the US and weakening Japanese currency against the US dollars lifted prices from the three month low. SHFE rubber futures too recovered from the four year low, with the most active May rubber futures gaining more than one per cent.
MARKET NEWS
Natural rubber imports by India in December jumps 46 per cent to 26853 tonnes year on. Production falls 5.3 per cent to 108000 tonnes while consumption rose about 1.4 per cent to 79500 tonnes during the same period.
Rubber inventories in the warehouses monitored by SHFE rises to nine year high. Weekly data showed stockpiles rose 0.9 per cent to 176027 tonnes.
Natural-rubber output from growers representing 93 per cent of global production estimated to expand to 11.15 mln tons in 2013 on growth in Thailand, Indonesia and China, according to Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries. Output in Vietnam estimated to jump 21 per cent to 1.04 mln tons in 2013, overtaking Malaysia as the third-largest producer.
Indonesia sees 2013 natural rubber output to be at 3.18 million tonnes against 3.04 million tonnes produced in 2012.
Crude rubber stockpiles held at Japanese warehouses rose 3.6 percent to 11,965 metric tons on Dec. 20, according to data from the Rubber Trade Association of Japan.
Data from Thai Ministry of Commerce showed that the country’s rubber exports in November jumped 35 per cent to 340497 tonnes.
According to Vietnam’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, rubber exports in December seen at 126,000 tons.
TECHNICAL VIEW
RUBBER Feb NMCE
Steep plunges witnessed in the previous session have added to the prevailing weakness. However, for the day, pullbacks to 16060 or even more to 16270 cannot be ruled out before resuming its downtrend. Alternatively, a direct fall below 15750 may see prices visiting 15500 or even more.
TURNAROUND
|
Resistances |
LEVELS |
Supports |
|
16060/16160 |
16270-15750-15500 |
15750-15650 |
|
16270/16400 |
|
15580-15500 |
|
16550/16700 |
|
15350/15200 |
Source: Geojit Comtrade
Download this report (full content – PDF file) here
