Shanghai technical rally did not continue until after the holiday, faced rubber producing peak season arrives, long apparent lack of “protracted war” in confidence. As of yesterday’s close, the main Shanghai 1409 contract prices under pressure again, falling to around four million oscillation mark.Taking into account the domestic and international natural rubber producing areas of drought on the supply side of the interference is gone, the future supply of new plastic will tend to strengthen the momentum of growth, while demand growth potential shortages, excess supply will increase, natural rubber prices will withstand the test of a seasonally weak.
Downward pressure on the domestic economy
Clearly, the current growth rate of China’s economy is in a shift of the structural adjustment policies to stimulate early growing pains and digestion period, “three overlay” unprecedented challenges and pressures.According to the latest announcement of the country’s 31 provinces and autonomous regions in the first quarter of respondents economy, economic growth is the main trend down. At the same time, as traditional manufacturing season, April PMI value is usually high point of the year, but the latest PMI index was only 50.4 in April, up slightly by 0.1 percentage point, not only for the calendar year in April the lowest, and the season sex ring recovery rate is also much weaker than the calendar year, indicating the economic downward pressure is still large. As the central government has repeatedly stated publicly not take short-term massive stimulus policies to promote economic growth, second quarter economic “bottoming” attitude is still difficult to domestic demand-side rubber worth looking forward to creating incremental space.
Terminal signs of slowing retail sectors appear
Car dealer inventory index to appreciate the needs and well-being has always been regarded as changing “thermometer.” According to data released by the China Automobile Dealers Association, April Chinese auto dealer inventory warning index was 46.3 percent, though still below the warning line, but again transferred upward trend. Which the sub-indicators of aggregate demand market index 47.7%, a decline of 13.1 percentage points; sales index was 46.6%, a decline of 10.9 percentage points, both revealing April sales in the domestic car market has been shrinking, the lack of end demand sustained growth momentum.
Surplus is expected to increase this year’s global natural rubber
Incremental demand and shrinking supply incremental expansion of the main root cause of this is undoubtedly the world’s natural rubber supply and demand upgrades. International Rubber Study Group (IRSG) said that in 2014 the world’s natural rubber supply surplus will amount higher than the previous forecast of more than three times, reaching the highest level in a decade. The organization is expected to last December, the excess amount of up to 241,000 tons, while the current estimate of the amount expected to exceed last year’s 714,000 tons, and future production data raised the possibility still exists. Since late last year, the world’s natural rubber stocks had reached 2.9 million tons, this year’s ending stocks are or will be close to 3.62 million tons. The largest consumer of natural rubber – China’s demand was 4.15 million tons last year, imports amounted to 4.01 million tons. In other words, this year’s ending stocks (excess amount) of global natural rubber will reach more than 87% of China’s annual demand, the scale of imports accounted for more than 90%.
Huge supply increments producing countries in Southeast Asia and Japan, China has made major consumer stocks continued to swell. As of the end of April, China Qingdao Bonded rubber stocks climbed to 361,000 tons, of which the proportion of natural rubber stocks increased to 72.85%, reaching 263,000 tons, an increase of 26.02%. Japan stocks rise in natural rubber port on April 20 to a high in recent years, reaching about 22,000 tons, an increase of 37.39%.
Tends to intensify the natural rubber market supply and demand will not change this year, but the moment is in the peak season arrival of supply and demand weakening of the terminal started turning point effect highlights.Shanghai rubber futures decline is expected in May die hard, the pattern is still in the doldrums.
Translated by Google Translator from http://market.cria.org.cn/25/20563.html