In late March 2014, the domestic synthetic rubber market finally ended nearly two years of sustained rose more or less the situation, into the rising channel. Trapped in long-term high butadiene market, maintaining a negative profit domestic production of synthetic rubber business once seemed a little respite.
According to Treasure Island monitoring, in late March to late July, the Asian market butadiene CFR China prices low point price difference of about 37%; domestic ex-factory price, Sinopec East China Open price increase reached 43.75%.
The synthetic rubber market, as of early August, late March to late August, butadiene rubber market average rose 28.89 percent ,; SBR regard to Qilu Chemical City as an example, Qilu 1502 prices rose 12.33 percent.
Although the price to get rid of a long-term downward trend, but for the synthetic rubber business, happy days are not like has once again caught in a more tragic situation, raw material costs are also affected by the sharp rise in the same period, purchased raw materials Synthetic enterprises not only failed to achieve profitability, but showed a loss gradually intensified the situation.
Sharply higher raw material prices, led to the rise of synthetic rubber producers of raw materials costs. According to Treasure Island Monitoring: theory butadiene rubber production costs during late March to late August increase 33.7%; SBR, an increase of 21.3% theoretical production costs. The manufacturers offer the same stage of the changes are: Sinopec Huadong Shun open butadiene rubber price rose 29.52%; SBR opening price rose 15.79 percent. Require foreign mining enterprises, especially enterprises operating rate of raw materials continued to remain at low levels of the reasons it is evident, resulting in the production and marketing enterprises can only passively balance the situation by reducing the operating rate of the model. 2014 January-July, the average operating rate of domestic SBR unit at 6.5 percent, butadiene rubber is more “miserable”, the average operating rate of less than 5 percent, in July, the operating rate has dropped to 40 percent or even less .
In the case of downstream products continued low operating rates, power butadiene prices rose sharply early come from, Treasure Island analysts believe are the following factors: 1, butadiene supply structure quietly taking place in the world changes. Due to reduced imports and cracker feedstock changes and other reasons, for the supply of crude butadiene extraction of four carbon materials will decline, butadiene plant in Asia average operating rate will remain at 80% or less. In addition, the promotion of shale gas in North America, the United States has a large number of petrochemical production capacity to rely on dehydrogenation of ethane to ethylene production this will lead to a decline butadiene production, is currently the United States is the world’s largest gap butadiene country needs from overseas a large number of imports to meet domestic production. 2, butadiene imports shrinking dramatically, short-term supply and demand upgrades. In the first half, China imported 112,700 tons of butadiene, down 40.55 percent. Significantly reduce imports, prompting domestic stocks quickly digested, created the conditions for the rise in prices. 3 In addition, parking maintenance portion of the device also makes butadiene supply a staged reduction.
By the impact of falling short supply, July butadiene prices have soared, although synthetic rubber business with ex-factory price also rose strongly, but subject to the effects of off-season demand, the rally is always the end of a chip Johnson, the face of constantly being eroded profits, some manufacturers could do nothing to further reduce the operating rate.
Downstream businesses more “do not buy it,” finally makes butadiene prices felt the highbrow taste, and some other bad news after another, first of all, since July, naphtha prices decline in overall channel into August even more is exacerbated declines, butadiene in the process of reducing the cost of natural decline, in fact, including ethylene, propylene and other related products are also in decline phase synchronization; Secondly, carbon prices fell for four partially open BDH device to create the conditions, such as Wanda butadiene plant has resumed operation; third, the influx of supply in Brazil and Europe have put pressure on the market.
According to the current costs, profits, synthetic rubber market supply and demand situation, is currently facing problems include: overcapacity, high inventory tires, synthetic rubber itself already in the basic balance for survival, although the latter are still some new domestic downstream devices may be put into production, but most devices still do not have the ability to self-butadiene see the survival status of existing installations, they do not have self-sufficiency of the new device can guarantee your day will be better than the others too? Therefore, we can say that the current consumption of butadiene synthetic rubber temporary loss of elasticity, the next period of time butadiene price trend is likely to rely mainly on the supply to the decision: Out of the boom, the supply increased focus on crash.
Translated by Google Translator from http://market.cria.org.cn/25/22818.html
