MARKET COMMENTARY
- Natural rubber posted its second successive week of losses with quotes for RSS4 in the physical market slumping to its weakest since early-April 2010. Amidst muted demand from the major natural rubber consuming sector, anticipation of higher arrivals as market is currently going through the peak production season pressurized prices to move south. RSS4 in the spot market was quoted as low as Rs.158/kg in the previous week while in the futures market, the most active January rubber futures registered a weekly decline of over 2.5 per cent. However, the recent sharp plunges are likely to attract some lower level buying that may cushion the falling prices. Also, narrowing gap between natural rubber prices in the local and overseas market and advances in the international market may support the sentiments.
- As the week’s session commences, natural rubber in the international market is seen rising following an upbeat Chinese economic data. TOCOM and SHFE rubber futures jumped as positive industrial production data bolstered growth expectations. Yet, US fiscal woes is likely to weigh on.
TECHNICAL VIEW
- According to a report appeared on The Hindu, leaders of various political parties have expressed concern over the fall in price of natural rubber (NR) and have called upon the Central government to initiate the necessary measures to arrest the slide.
- Natural rubber imports by China were 220,000 metric tons in November
- China’s factory output and retail sales rise to eight month high. Industrial production rose 10.1 per cent in November on YoY basis.
- Rubber inventories in the warehouses monitored by SHFE rose to 1.8 per cent to 94796 tonnes.
- Vietnam, the world’s fourth-largest rubber exporter, may join the International Tripartite Rubber Council of top producing nations, strengthening the group which has agreed to cut shipments to support prices.
- US auto sales climbed 15 per cent in November to 1.14 million vehicles.
TECHNICAL VIEW
RUBBER Jan NMCE
While the broad trend still stays bearish, the bounce back seen in the previous session towards 16500 region is likely to continue towards 16650 or more to 16800 levels. Yet, it requires clearing 16860 convincingly to bring about a positive bias in the near term. Now, another leg of bearishness may be seen on the breach of 15950.
Source: Geojit Comtrade
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