Quotes review
March, natural rubber continued unilateral decline in the trend continued to continue unilateral decline, and continue to hit a new low, but then encounter, stabilized stabilized, and returned to a technical rebound, which reflects the supply and demand of natural rubber market The relationship is reversed from the background and the essence of the reversal.
Prospects and Strategy Suggestions
Looking forward to April trend, by the international and domestic aspects of the neutral factors of the neutral intertwined effect, in the surrounding Tokyo City, Singapore rubber market both down the trend of deep down, Hujiao market outlook will continue the formation of the original deep down Of the trend, while subject to the global macroeconomic and financial situation neutral factors, although the short-term may fall sharply, but the medium-term may return to the low regional concussion trend, the operation should be short-term low-absorbing high-throwing.
1. Macroeconomic and financial situation analysis
On the domestic front, in March 2017, China’s manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) was 51.8%, higher than expected 51.7, before the value of 51.6. Rose for two consecutive months, higher than last month 0.2 percentage points, the manufacturing sector continued to maintain a steady trend. China’s official manufacturing industry in March PMI better than expected, for 8 consecutive months in the top of the line, for the April 2012 high since.
According to the scale of enterprises, the PMI of large enterprises was 53.3%, unchanged from the previous month and remained steady. The PMI of medium-sized enterprises was 50.4%, 0.1 percentage points lower than that of last month, and the PMI was 48.6% Month rose 2.2 percentage points, the contraction rate was significantly narrowed.
From the classification index, the production index, the new order index and the supplier delivery time index are higher than the critical point in the five sub-indices constituting the manufacturing PMI. The employee index is at the critical point and the raw material inventory index is lower than the critical point. Production index was 54.2%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, located in the expansion range, indicating that manufacturing growth continues to accelerate.
The new orders index was 53.3%, higher than the previous month 0.3 percentage points, located above the critical point, indicating that the manufacturing market demand continues to grow.
Employee index was 50.0%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, at the critical point, indicating that manufacturing enterprises with little change compared with the previous month.
The raw material inventory index was 48.3%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month and continued below the critical point, indicating that the major raw material inventories in the manufacturing sector continued to decline.
Vendor delivery time index of 50.3%, although down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, but still higher than the critical point, indicating that the manufacturing raw material suppliers delivery time is slightly faster.
Sub-sectors, the service business activity index was 54.2%, up 1.0 percentage points from the previous month, the service industry continued steady progress. The business activities index, such as retail trade, air transport industry, postal industry, Internet and software information technology service, monetary and financial services, capital market service and insurance industry, are located in the higher boom area of 55.0% and so on. The Road transport, catering, real estate, residential services and repair industry and other sectors of the business activity index is below the critical point, the total business has come down. Construction business activity index was 60.5%, higher than last month 0.4 percentage points, the expansion rate has accelerated. The new orders index was 51.9%, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, continuing the expansion in the range, indicating that the non-manufacturing market demand growth accelerated. In the sub-sector, the new order index for the services sector was 51.7%, up 1.2 percentage points from the previous month and above the critical point. New orders for the construction industry index of 53.3%, although down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, but still higher than the critical point. The input price index was 52.3%, down from 1.4 percentage points last month, still above the critical point, indicating that the overall level of input prices for non-manufacturing enterprises for production operations continued to narrow. Sub-sectors, the service industry input price index was 51.0%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month. Construction industry input price index was 59.8%, down 1.8 percentage points from the previous month. The sales price index was 49.7%, down 1.7 percentage points from the previous month and fell below the critical point, indicating a decrease in the overall level of non-manufacturing sales. Sub-sectors, the service industry sales price index was 48.9%, down 2.2 percentage points from the previous month. Construction sales price index was 54.3%, up 1.0 percentage points from the previous month.
Employers’ index was 49.1%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month and continued below the critical point, indicating that the number of non-manufacturing employees continued to decline. In the industry, the service sector index was 48.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. Construction industry staff index was 50.8%, down 6.3 percentage points from the previous month.
Expected business activity index was 61.3%, although down 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, but still in the high boom range. The official manufacturing PMI rose for two consecutive months, the manufacturing industry continued to maintain a steady trend, mainly due to the following reasons drive:
First, production and market demand growth accelerated. In the production and demand to pick up at the same time, enterprises to increase procurement efforts. Second, high-tech manufacturing continued rapid expansion, part of the traditional industry production and management conditions continue to improve. Third, the import and export continued expansion trend. Fourth, raw material prices slowed down gains.
In March, manufacturing PMI was 51.8%, higher than last month 0.2 percentage points, rising for two consecutive months, the manufacturing sector continued to maintain a steady trend. First, production and market demand growth accelerated. The index for production and the new orders index were 54.2% and 53.3%, respectively, up 0.5 and 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. In the production and demand to pick up at the same time, enterprises to increase procurement efforts, procurement index of 53.4%, a larger increase, higher than last month 2.0 percentage points. Second, high-tech manufacturing continued rapid expansion, part of the traditional industry production and management conditions continue to improve. High-tech manufacturing PMI was 54.2%, higher than the overall manufacturing 2.4 percentage points. PMI in the traditional industries such as oil processing and coking, non-metallic mineral products, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry and other industries PMI rose for two consecutive months, this month are higher than the overall level of manufacturing. Third, the import and export continued expansion trend. The new export orders index and import index were 51.0% and 50.5% respectively, all for 5 consecutive months in the expansion interval. Fourth, raw material prices slowed down gains. The purchase price index and ex-factory price index for the major raw materials were 59.3% and 53.2% respectively, down 4.9 and 3.1 percentage points respectively from the previous month. From the survey results, this month to reflect the tightening of the proportion of enterprises rebounded to 41.1%, especially small businesses with the operating conditions improved, more than 50% of the enterprises reflect the financing difficult to finance the problem. In addition, the main raw material purchase price index and ex-factory price index of ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry continued to rise at a high level of 68.9% and 73.5% respectively, and the ex-factory price index was higher than the main raw material purchase price index for two consecutive months. attention.
According to the scale of enterprises, the PMI of large enterprises was 53.3%, unchanged from the previous month and remained steady. The PMI of medium-sized enterprises was 50.4%, 0.1 percentage points lower than that of last month, and the PMI was 48.6% Month rose 2.2 percentage points, the contraction rate was significantly narrowed.
In March, China’s non-manufacturing business activity index was 55.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, rising to nearly three years high, further expansion of the pace of non-manufacturing expansion.
The service industry continues to be steady. The business activity index was 54.2%, higher than the previous month and 1.0 and 1.1 percentage points in the same period last year. The service industry boomed further. The new orders index was 51.7%, up 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, rebounded for two consecutive months, the market demand continued to improve.
Driven by the stabilization of the manufacturing economy, the growth rate of the producer services and logistics industry has been accelerating for two consecutive months. The business activity index rose to 61.0% and 57.7% this month, all of which were high since the year. The business activities index of retail, air transport, postal services, Internet and software information technology services, monetary and financial services, capital market services and insurance are all in the higher boom area of 55.0% and above, fast. Road transport, catering, real estate, residential services and repair industries such as business activity index is below the critical point, the total business has come down.
The expansion of the construction industry has accelerated. This year, with the advance of China’s major construction projects, infrastructure investment gradually accelerated, the construction industry to maintain a rapid growth in overall. The index for business activities was 60.5%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, the housing construction industry and civil engineering construction business activity index were 61.5% and 60.6%, are in the high boom interval. From the market expectations, the construction industry business expectations is 66.7%, rising for three consecutive months, since July 2015 highs, business confidence in the future market continues to increase.
Internationally, rising US real estate prices may amplify the possibility of a future recession. It is now hoped that regulators will consider ways to cool the real estate sector by taking into account other than interest rates.
Rosen Glen said that in fact, not only refers to the United States, many areas of housing prices rose sharply may be the financial system instability signal, which is only gradually rising interest rates can not control. Because of the broad range of real estate investments and the limited role of monetary and macro-prudential tools in dealing with valuation issues, he argues that it is important to acknowledge that the US commercial real estate industry is likely to face problems in the face of a recession.
Data show that in 2007 to 2008, the US residential and commercial real estate prices fell sharply in the real estate industry has a highly leveraged banking industry suffered heavy losses, triggering a global financial crisis and a serious recession. However, with the economic recovery, the US banking industry in the past year, commercial and residential mortgage loans were increased by 9% and 12% respectively.
2. Analysis of global supply and demand of natural rubber
According to industry research firm RubberEconomist news, global natural rubber production will not be sufficient to meet the demand, the global stock of materials to further reduce the natural rubber substitute synthetic rubber production over the past three years can not meet the demand, this trend is expected to continue.
It is expected that the global natural rubber production in 2016 will be less than 11.6 million tons and the consumption will be 12.5 million tons; the output in 2017 will be less than 12 million tons and the consumption is expected to exceed 12.6 million tons or more.
After years of continuous decline in Jiaojia, tapping the enthusiasm of more and more low, the new plastic resources less and less, but the rubber demand has not been reduced, so the demand is inevitable.
International Rubber Research Organization (IRSG) released forecast to the current situation in Southeast Asia, you can plant the resources of rubber exhausted, that the global rubber in 2020 will be in short supply situation. With the existing capacity of 12.5 million tons, when the global consumption of natural rubber will reach 13.6 million tons, the demand greatly exceeds the production capacity.
Southeast Asian countries, the main producing areas show that the total acreage from the point of view, 2016 ANRPC total area of 11.54 million hectares, has been increasing. But the growth rate is decreasing year by year, from 4% in 2010 fell to 1.8% this year. It can be seen that IRSG predicts that the rubber planting area is exhausted or well documented.
The market is concerned about the supply of incremental or to fall on the new planting area, from the ANRPC new planting area, the beginning of 2012, the new plant area has declined rapidly from the new 480,000 hectares to 2016 years of 94,000 hectares. Low rubber prices do hit the ANRPC rubber growing enthusiasm. From the 2012 data, we can clearly see the increase in the area of new plantation in Thailand, Vietnam has indeed a surge, and Vietnam in 2008 – 2012 new planting area is higher than other countries. With the rubber’s planting cycle of 6-7 years, Vietnam’s triumph over Malaysia in 2013 as the third largest producer of rubber is also a reason. Overall, 2013 – 2016 is a significant decline in the area of a few years, corresponding to 2019 – 2023 should be the growth of ANRPC supply a few years.
Rubber tree Wang Chong period of up to 10 years to the current distribution of Thai tree tree age point of view, by 2020, high yield tree or accounted for the majority. So the impact of Thailand’s production capacity is more about whether the occurrence of disaster in the planting area, and the future increase in rubber production more attention in Vietnam. Natural rubber supply and demand gap is more demand growth is greater than supply growth.
ANRPC from the opening area, the total area of 2016 opened a total of 8.66 million hectares, and in recent years ANRPC cut rate is stable at about 75%. Indonesia’s tapping area of 3.03 million hectares this year, the rate of 80%, while the Thai cut area of 2.83 million hectares, the opening rate of 91%. In general, the ANRPC opening area is similar to the total acreage, while the total is increasing but the growth rate is still decreasing from 4.6% in 2010 to 1.6% this year.
Natural Rubber Manufacturers Association (ANRPC) data show that natural rubber supply has been slowing down for three consecutive years. From 5% in 2013, the growth rate in 2014 fell to 1.9%, while the growth rate of 2015 only 0.8%. ANRPC members of natural rubber consumption accounted for 65% of total global consumption, 2016 is expected to continue to grow 4.5%. The current supply and demand side is conducive to industrial development.
2017 world rubber will increase production, is expected to 12,562,000 tons. The main reason is that 2010 – 2012 new species of gum tree into the tapping period, and the price improved, India, Malaysia, abandoned the mature rubber tree will resume tapping. The domestic market, natural rubber production in recent years, the decline trend and abandoned cutting tree re-cutting factors hedge, China’s output and 2016 flat, is expected to 74 million tons. Global rubber consumption is expected to be 12.638 million tons in 2017.
From the data point of view, Indonesia has the largest rubber planting area of 3.64 million hectares, while Thailand to 3.09 million hectares ranked second. The reason why Thai production can be more than Indonesia, mainly by their own young rubber trees and 90% of the high rate of rubber, while the Indonesian rubber tree production is slightly smaller.
According to the International Rubber Organization (IRSG) statistics, the global natural rubber supply and demand gap of nearly 1.1 million tons.
Affected by this, Hujiao main contract RU1709 from February 28 closing price of 18870 yuan fell to March 31 closing price of 16335 yuan, the cumulative decline of 2535 yuan, the relative decline of 13.43%.
Which constitutes a neutral effect of natural rubber.
3. Analysis of the main producing countries
3.1 Analysis of Thai natural rubber production
February 27 news, the Thai Rubber Agency said that Thailand will be auctioned on March 7 about 120,000 tons of state reserves rubber. Thailand is the world’s largest rubber producer and exporter.
The official said: will be held on March 7, the last State Reserve rubber auction, selling about 120,000 tons of rubber. The Thai government has sold 194,000 tons of rubber in two tenders held in January and February this year. In 2014 the Thai military government began to purchase rubber from farmers and the establishment of inventory, as prices began to fall.
On March 2, the Thai government announced the postponement of the auction of government stockpiles scheduled for March 7-8. Prior to the news that the Thai government announced the first three rounds of rubber auction tender, a total of 11,800 tons, of which 11,400 tons of tobacco pieces, standard rubber 3700 tons, the average price of 71.6 baht. Thailand is the world’s largest rubber producer and exporter. The Thai government has sold 194,000 tons of rubber in two tenders held in January and February this year.
The third round: Thailand Rubber Bureau announced on the 15th to start the last national rubber auction auction registration, March 21-22 held the State Reserve rubber auction, 25 announced the bid results. Thai government announced the first three rounds of rubber auction tender, a total of 130,000 tons.
Prior to the two national rubber auction, Thailand sold a total of 194,000 tons of state reserves rubber.
The second round: According to Bangkok, January 30, the honorary president of the Thai Rubber Association LuckchaiKittIPOl said that Thailand will be auctioned on February 14 about 100000 tons of national reserves rubber stocks. Thailand’s second round of the State Reserve rubber auction today (14), it is learned that the dumping process is very smooth, very active bidding business, this morning a total turnover of 70,000 tons, of which the average price of tobacco film transactions 75 baht / kg, The average price of 66 baht / kg. This afternoon will continue to auction about 30,000 tons, the current turnover of 25,000 tons, 5,000 tons of testers, the transaction price basically flat morning.
The first round: Since the beginning of 2014 Jiaojia prices fell, the Thai military government began to buy rubber from the hands of rubber farmers. Thai Rubber Agency said it would sell 98,000 tons of rubber in the first national rubber auction this year. Thai rubber bureau chief said the auction totaled more than 6.64 billion baht ($ 187.57 million). The auction of rubber from the 26 state storage warehouse, including rubber blocks and smoke film glue.
The auction coincided with flooding in the southern provinces of the world’s largest rubber producer and exporter, which killed 45 people and suspended tapping.
Concerns about floods have skyrocketed global rubber prices.
Thailand’s rubber prices are expected to rise this year as floods could lead to under-supply. After the auction, Thailand still has about 21.20 million tons of state reserves rubber.
After the rubber prices began to decline in 2014, the Thai military government began to buy rubber from the hands of rubber farmers. The government plans to clear the remaining stocks during the year.
The Thai Rubber Agency and Thailand Research Fund Office signed a cooperation agreement to build a rubber research and cooperation network. At the same time, the government set the target in the next 10 years, the proportion of rubber processing from the current 15-18% to 25-30%.
Vice Premier Zhu Jin will host the Thai rubber industry sustainable development research seminar yesterday (20), and delivered a special speech that Thailand is committed to improving the rubber processing industry in Thailand and enhance the use of rubber to meet the needs of domestic and foreign rubber In the next 10 years, the government is committed to increasing the proportion of rubber processing from 15-18% to 25-30% for one year, while 80% of the rubber produced is exported overseas.
Government police and the military a lot of equipment production and manufacturing can not be separated from rubber, but need to rely on imports. As a result, the government has introduced policies to support domestic self-processing of related equipment to reduce capital consumption. The relevant policies include the promotion of the construction of rubbercity, the provision of research support for the development of new products to meet market demand, covering health care, agriculture, automobiles And other areas. In addition, the government also provides opportunities for foreign investors, whether by foreign enterprises in full investment, or cooperation with the Thai local industry cooperation, can be seen in the field of rail transport industry results, nearly 2-3 years will continue to invest Expansion, such as bridge pressure pad, train rail pressure plate, car shock system.
Ba Jin also pointed out that the rubber development and research to promote the work of the Thai Rubber Bureau from upstream to downstream support to enhance the domestic rubber processing capacity, in line with market value and demand, and thus promote the further growth of the Thai economy. Thailand Rubber Agency and the Thai Research Fund Office of the cooperation, the two sides will work together to build rubber research and cooperation network, rubber development prospects to develop and develop strategic planning, the research results will be applied to the production, can be described as the rubber industry forward A big step, but also by the government and the support of the private sector, I believe we can be successful.
Integrated a variety of factors in Thailand, the composition of the natural role of natural rubber.
3.2 Analysis of the production of natural rubber in Indonesia
March 23 last year, the tripartite rubber council officials announced that the policy will limit the export to the end of this year, last year 9-12 months Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, the United States, the United States, the United States, the United States, the United States, The three countries will continue to cut exports, cut the total amount of 85,000 tons.
Recently, the first stage of restrictions on export policy has been implemented, the implementation of national conditions? On the whole, the effect of restricting export policy is poor. In addition to Indonesia, the other two countries have increased the volume of natural rubber exports, coupled with the Vietnamese exports also increased significantly, limiting the export policy did not tighten the natural rubber supply side, the supply and demand changes smaller, the actual implementation and restrictions on exports Policy runs counter to.
Indonesia in the three countries to limit the export of the most stringent, export volume decreased slightly, but as of July, the implementation period is nearing completion, export reduction of less than 50,000 tons, for the scheduled limit of 23.8 million tons is still far apart. Indonesia 85% of the natural rubber to rely on exports, while the domestic downstream industry is not developed, domestic demand is very limited, it is difficult to support the full implementation of restrictions on export quota policy.
Thailand can not say that the export restrictions can not be implemented, only to the enterprises issued quotas, but there is no monitoring measures, the natural rubber processing enterprises for the restrictions on quotas is also turned a deaf ear.
Malaysia, although not strict restrictions on exports, but the new natural rubber processing capacity to increase the intensity of the audit, the future to obtain new capacity license more difficult; the other hand, the construction of small natural rubber downstream industry, in the long run beneficial In the control of natural rubber production and the development of its natural rubber industry. However, domestic consumption in Malaysia is mainly concentrated in the field of latex, the consumption of dry rubber is still mainly rely on exports.
Vietnam is the surface swaying cheer, expressed willingness to establish a unified front with other producing countries, but in fact strong exports, natural rubber exports grew the most obvious.
Although the implementation of the policy is very poor, but the policy promulgated at the beginning, still greatly boost the price of Jiao.
Earlier this year, too low prices continue to squeeze the income of farmers and government revenue, the tripartite rubber council after discussion decided by reducing the export of natural rubber to tighten the supply side to boost Jiaojia. In mid-February, after the news of the export reduction, the price of natural rubber rose all the way, only a week’s time rose sharply by 13.8%. Although the policy was just implemented at the time, natural rubber supply did not appear a substantial reduction, but the impact of market speculation and news is a great boost to the Jiaojia, followed by a comprehensive stabilization of commodities rebound, natural rubber prices also red To the year high.
Recently, restrictions on the export of the message of the amount of dust landing, the market is likely to speculation again by the market again, but because the implementation of pre-policy is extremely unsatisfactory, the degree of decline in export volume is minimal, while the tire business may cover the raw materials, Wang production period of the main producing countries to sell pressure, the market response to this policy may be relatively calm, only in the news side to support the price increase.
The decision to determine the natural rubber price trend is still the demand side for the supply of the expected judgment and the actual demand situation.
The current tires and heavy truck production and sales data performed well, and the stock is relatively tight supply, both ends of supply and demand is still in a relatively balanced stage, and in the case of capital undercurrent surging, if there is no new demand growth point, the market “L” Type bottom shock situation temporarily will not break.
Which will include the Indonesian natural rubber supply will have a neutral partial effect.
3.3 Analysis of natural rubber production in Malaysia
Malaysia is Southeast Asia veteran natural rubber producer, rubber planting industry was one of its two pillar industries. With the acceleration of industrialization in Malaysia and the development of oil palm planting industry, rubber cultivation and production shrinking year by year.
Although Malaysia is difficult to watch in terms of natural rubber production, Malaysia is still one of the world’s leading producers of rubber, especially its downstream rubber industry is far ahead of other countries in Southeast Asia.
Malaysia’s annual rubber production in 2016 is expected to be 690,000 tonnes, accounting for 5.5% of the world’s total. Malaysia was once the first producer of rubber in history, and Malaysia was the first in 2002.
A wave of bear market before 2000 led to a significant loss of rubber production in Malaysia, where a large rubber plant was cut down. At that time because of palm oil (5210, -34.00, -0.65%) business is relatively good, so the Malaysian rubber industry into a large number of palm oil cultivation. Until now, Malaysia has not been the third largest producer of plastic, has become the fifth largest producer of rubber, Malaysia is also from its history, the highest close to 2 million tons of production down to now less than 700,000 tons.
Malaysia’s latex glove manufacturing industry’s largest in the world, Malaysia supplies nearly 80% of the world’s latex glove market, it needs a lot of latex.
And the amount of domestic latex can not meet the needs of Malaysia, so Malaysia every year from Thailand to import at least 500,000 tons of natural latex to process its gloves, plus Malaysia but also from Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam imported raw materials, made Some composite glue and mixed glue, and then exported to China.
So integrated to calculate, in fact, Malaysia is already a rubber importer. Malaysia’s industrialization is much more developed than that of Thailand and Indonesia, and the cost of the whole labor force is relatively higher than that of other countries.
From the Malaysian comprehensive cost, government policy and other aspects of the situation, its cost is not suitable for natural rubber processing industry, it is basically a piece of the trend of declining year by year, this downward trend is still theoretically The Malaysia has now become the fifth largest producer of plastic, has been lower than Vietnam, lower than China.
Malaysian natural rubber industry will make the status of Jiaojia strong support role.
“Nanyang Business Daily” reported on February 21, the Malaysian planting and the original product minister Ma Juan Qiang recently said that the rubber industry is not sunset industry, some of which developed by the industry’s high-tech downstream industrial products is comparable to overseas products, is the future development trend , The proposed government agencies to adopt and support these high-tech and affordable domestic products.
Ma said that rubber products in the global market to obtain up to 500 billion US dollars (about 22.5 million ringgit) transactions, the Malaysian rubber companies have the ability to produce products to the international level, many local products to obtain a number of overseas large projects favored Export overseas markets.
At present, the Malaysian government is actively pursuing the development of a number of large-scale infrastructure construction projects, the Government actively encourages foreign investment, but also to recommend more foreign investment in local high-tech products.
He also pointed out that domestic rubber companies should continue to develop high-tech and high value-added downstream products, which will help stabilize the rubber market price, benefit the garden industry, and in line with the “2050 National Transition Plan (TN50)” development strategy. Ma Dongqiang pointed out that last year, Malaysia’s original exports increased by 4.19%, exports amounted to 121.996 billion ringgit. Although last year’s rubber product export rate fell 1.63% compared to the previous year, but this year’s rubber prices have rebounded, exports are expected to increase, confident this year can rise to 5%.
In addition, according to the data show that cocoa products last year exports grew 14.05%, exports amounted to 57.36 billion ringgit. Palm oil exports increased 6.93% to RM67.583 billion. Tobacco products increased by 4.11% over the previous year to RM5.34 billion. Mu Tong products relative to the previous year was up 0.86% to 21.859 billion ringgit. Pepper products fell 4.61%, from the previous year’s 5.13 billion ringgit reduced to RM49 million.
Which will have a neutral partial effect on the supply of natural rubber in Malaysia.
3.4 Analysis of Indian natural rubber production
India 2016 annual production of natural rubber is expected to 57 million tons, accounting for 4.5% of the world, India is an important member of the Association of natural rubber producers. India’s rubber production is close to 600,000 tons, consumption of about 800,000 tons, India needs to import 200,000 tons of rubber per year. According to foreign media reports, the latest data from the Indian Rubber Authority (IRB) show that the country’s natural rubber production continued to grow, the output in January 2017 increased by 26.93% over the same period in 2016, this fiscal year (April 2016 ~ 2017 In March) natural rubber production is expected to reach the expected 654,000 tons.
As of January 2017, the total production of natural rubber reached 565,000 tons in the first 10 months, compared with 492,000 tons in the same period last year, an increase of 14.84%.
India’s natural rubber exports have also increased due to the relatively high international market price. As of February 20, the country’s natural rubber exports have reached 12,000 tons.
India’s steady growth in natural rubber production is due to higher market prices and IRB’s effective measures to promote production, including tapping and processing of rubber workers, to increase production and production efficiency.
India’s rubber manufacturing industry encountered a lot of difficulties, because now peon is also complaining about the price of rubber is too low, glue farmers have no way to maintain a normal living standards, India’s domestic rubber production slowdown.
The Indian government, in order to protect its rubber industry, has developed a very high rubber import tariff, 25% rubber import high tariffs, which lead to overseas rubber prices, especially in Indonesia, Thailand is far lower than India’s domestic rubber prices.
At present, India’s domestic rubber consumption increased year by year, the market people hope that India will become a rubber consumption power. From now on, this trend is there, but relatively slowly, India’s domestic tire manufacturing industry is also completing a period from the torn tire to the radial tire.
There are also some large international tire manufacturers, including Michelin to India to invest, but also increased the consumption of natural rubber in India.
According to foreign media news, the latest report of the Indian Rubber Council, is expected in 2017-2018 fiscal year, the country’s domestic rubber shortage will be expanded to 34 million tons.
Short supply of supplies caused by the Indian tire industry close attention.
India’s Ministry of Commerce said the tire industry demand for duty-free imports, has been equivalent to the amount of rubber shortage.
India Rubber Council is expected, 2017-2018 fiscal year, India’s natural rubber production increased to 720,000 tons, consumption increased to 1.06 million tons.
The country’s auto tire manufacturers Association chairman said that India’s domestic production is still far below the demand.
Recently, natural rubber prices fluctuated significantly, leading to further tightening of production. In the past 45 to 60 days, natural rubber prices rose sharply by 30%, rubber growers reluctantly reluctantly mentality to expect prices continue to rise.
Import is the necessary means to address the short supply in India. But the global price volatility, coupled with high import tariffs, making imports become impossible events.
At the same time, the Indian tire industry from mid-February began to enter the peak production, and has continued until September, once again increased industry concerns.
Which the Indian rubber price trend to produce a bullish role.
Analysis of China ‘s natural rubber production
After 60 years of development, China’s natural rubber industry has grown, now has more than 1700 acres of plastic garden, natural rubber production capacity of 1 million tons, annual output of 850,000 tons and absorb more than 300 million jobs.
At present, China’s plastic industry is mainly distributed in Hainan, Yunnan and Guangdong provinces. In 2015, the planting area of Yunnan is about 573,000 hectares, about 542,000 hectares in Hainan and about 42,000 hectares in Guangdong. The output of Hainan and Yunnan accounts for 98% of the national output, of which Yunnan accounts for 53.8%. China’s natural rubber planting area after Indonesia and Thailand, ranking third in the world, production after Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam, ranking fourth in the world.
According to the observation data of the observation points and the expert group in Banna state, it shows that in 2008, more than 300 million mu of plastic soil in the whole state had powdery mildew, which was the year of rubber powdery mildew.
In 2008, the opening of the plastic plantation area of more than one million mu, private rubber plant disaster area of 77.67 million mu, Xishuangbanna development of natural rubber industry for more than 50 years, suffered the most serious harm to the disease once.
According to expert estimates, by the impact of the rubber tree powdery mildew, the state will have more than 100 acres of plastic garden can not be cut on schedule, opening time generally to be delayed about 1 month.
And even part of the serious segment of the forest cutting time will be delayed for 2 months or more than 2 months, the loss rate of plastic is expected to 6% to 8%, according to estimates, will result in reduced production of 15,000 tons of dry powder.
According to the local peanut reaction in Xishuangbanna, this powdery mildew is the most serious since 2008, mainly because of the climate anomalies since the Spring Festival this year, warm in winter, leaves are not comprehensive, bacteria infection. The more important reason is that due to the forest in agriculture, fertilization and conservation aspects or a certain problem, leading to exacerbations.
According to the site inspection, Xishuangbanna total planting area of about 560 million mu, the total output is estimated at 40 million tons, the survey sub-Jinghong and Mengla region, the output of each Xishuangbanna region 5: 5 ratio, which Jinghong covered olive dam and Dongfeng area, accounting for 30% and 70%, respectively, the most serious disease Jinghong planting areas.
According to the actual situation of planting plastic forest, the main pathogen of powdery mildew is 7-8 years of planting age, this year is facing the newly cut trees, and 35 years old or older trees, concentrated in the high altitude and illegal planting area; 2017 Annual powdery mildew covers the area affected by planting about 30-40%.
Basically due to the impact of the disaster, the year 2017 Xishuangbanna synchronized postponement cut, cut time is generally delayed by about a month, the processing plant to resume the start of postponed about half a month; according to the acreage point of view, by the end of April do not exclude production by 10,000 Ton in the occasional delivery of the subject.
After the white powder condition, the rubber trees need to re-leaf sprout growth, rain plenty of irrigation, according to the recent Xishuangbanna climate show, gradually increased the rain, the disease or will ease, but due to delayed opening cut the loss of glue, the latter can make up in May Or the second high-yield period to catch up, it still needs to observe the climate change during the Songkran Festival.
Cut off the enthusiasm of last year’s cut-off period, the glue once reached 15-16 yuan / kg, this year is expected to cut and the new cut will increase the incremental, but due to powdery mildew and the recent sharp decline in the market, if cut Offer less than 13 yuan / kg, do not rule out the emotional will be affected, pre-incremental reduction.
2016 growth of about 18%, does not rule out the initial competition for raw materials.
February 2017, China’s natural rubber (including latex, compound rubber / mixed plastic, standard plastic, smoke film) imports of 40.13 million tons, the chain increased by 2.67%, up 69.93%. Of which natural latex imports 35,400 tons, the chain increased by 12.64%, up 93.64%; smoky rubber imports 18,200 tons, the chain fell 37.84%, up 62.58%; standard plastic imports of 163,300 tons, the chain fell 7.49% , An increase of 48.41%; composite rubber imports of 09,800 tons, the chain was flat, down 8.41%; mixed plastic imports of 178,800 tons, the chain by 21.23%, up 103.08%. Overall, in February latex, mixed rubber ring increased significantly, the other rubber chain has declined.
February cigarette sheet imports fell. Import mainly in Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia-based tobacco. The market is more common in Thailand 3 # smoke films, Vietnamese small cigarette and Indonesia No. 1 cigarette. Which Thailand cigarettes accounted for 83.02% of the total imports of cigarettes; Vietnamese small cigarettes accounted for 10.59% of total imports of tobacco; Indonesia No. 1 cigarette smokers accounted for 3.26% of total imports.
Standard rubber imports in February fell, an increase over the same period. From the importing country, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, the three main producing countries are still the forefront of imports, accounting for more than 93% of total imports of standard glue. Followed by Vietnam and Côte d’Ivoire, imports accounted for about 7% of total imports of plastic. Downstream factories mainly to the use of Thai standard, standard-based, marked imports increased, there are P-level and non-P-level points.
February imports of mixed rubber with the chain have increased. Thai mixed, Vietnam mixed, mixed with the main, accounting for imports of plastic imports of 45.09%, 27.73% and 20.05%. Mata standard mixed with standard glue 20 mixed mainly Vietnamese mixing is mainly 3L of Vietnam, the mixed with a small amount of SBR, the quality is basically comparable to 3L of the original plastic, widely used in downstream products.
In March, the traditional practice is concerned, with the downstream demand for the gradual recovery, imports will appear growth. This year is estimated that no exception, on the basis of last year on the basis of the industry generally have confidence in the market after the year to increase imports; followed by tires and heavy trucks and other data after a good performance, the factory operating rate generally improved demand is expected to be good. However, the floods in December – January have a greater impact on Thailand, thus dampening the growth in imports. It is expected that March imports will continue to show a greater probability of growth.
Thus the domestic production of natural rubber on the composition of natural rubber neutral role.
3.6 Vietnamese natural rubber production analysis
Vietnam 2016 annual production of natural rubber is expected to 1.05 million tons, accounting for 8.3% of the world, in recent years, Vietnamese rubber production increased rapidly, Vietnam is also an important member of the Association of natural rubber producers. Vietnamese natural rubber is currently the world’s third largest producer of plastic, the annual output has exceeded 1 million tons, and the future there is room for further growth. Vietnamese production of seasonal fluctuations in the relatively large, and its cut-off period, open cut with Yunnan similar, so often relatively small supply in the first half, and to the second half of the rubber production peak, the Vietnamese tend to focus on a large number of low Price throw, often will cause fluctuations in the Chinese rubber market.
According to the Vietnamese Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development statistics show that the first two months of 2017, Vietnamese rubber exports and exports were up 25.4% and 1.4 times. Reported that 2017 two months ago, Vietnamese rubber exports amounted to 193,000 tons, exports amounted to 392 million US dollars. Among them, China, Malaysia and South Korea are the top three Vietnamese rubber import market, rubber exports accounted for 70% of the market share, respectively, 4.2% and 4.1%, exports were up 1.3 times, 39% and 77.5%. At present, Vietnamese rubber export prices are showing upward trend. 2016 rubber average price of 1333 US dollars / ton, 2017 two months before the increase to 1922 US dollars / ton.
In other countries rubber production is reduced, rubber prices rise in the context of Vietnamese rubber production is still sufficient. Vietnam is expected this year, natural rubber prices and production continues to rise.
Vietnam rubber industry dynamics, the natural rubber market constitutes a long and short intertwined neutral bearish effect.
4. China’s natural rubber inventory analysis
Domestic natural rubber producing areas, although the current value of natural rubber supply off-season, but due to increased import pressure, resulting in natural rubber stocks not only did not reduce, but also increased.
Qingdao Bonded Zone, steady growth in inventory, indicating that the domestic supply of plastic imports showed a growth trend, the pressure of imported rubber stocks gradually increased. While domestic futures rubber stocks continue to increase, Jiaojia bear the role of repression increased.
Inventory, as of March 17, Qingdao Bonded Zone rubber stocks reached 18.7 million tons, compared with March 1 16.62 million tons increased by 2.08 million tons, an increase of 12.52%, of which natural rubber stocks reached 13.75 million More than tons of more than 12.34 million tons on March 1 increased by 14,100 tons, an increase of 11.43%, indicating that imports of plastic stocks gradually increased inventory pressure continues to increase.
Market inventory, as of March 24, the rubber stocks on the period of a slight reduction of 47 tons to 33,3553 tons, registered warehouse receipts reduced 740 tons to 281150 tons, futures pressure further reduced.
Steady pressure increased steadily, because the new glue is still a steady stream into the futures market registered warehouse receipts, the futures market is becoming an ideal place for domestic sales of plastic. At the same time tire business rate in the Spring Festival after the rise in imports of plastic consumption has increased.
Which will be on the natural rubber futures and spot prices constitute a bearish effect.
5. China’s natural rubber consumption analysis
World tire industry has been the development of more than 160 years of history. As the upstream industry of the automobile industry, the tire industry continues to develop with the development of the automobile industry. The development of the new car market and the increasing number of car ownership provide the driving force for the development of the tire industry. From the global market, the current world tire industry has developed into a large, highly developed industry, and has entered a relatively stable period of development.
The world’s tire industry is highly concentrated, according to the US “tire business” statistics of the 2016 annual global tire 75 list, sales of more than 10 billion US dollars of enterprises Bridgestone, Michelin, Goodyear and the mainland 4, 2015 total Sales of $ 71.755 billion, accounting for 44.81% of global tire sales of $ 160,135 million. These major manufacturers have strong financial strength and research and development capabilities, leading the world tire industry development direction.
China’s tire industry is developing rapidly. In 1950, China’s tire production reached 250 million, more than the United States of the 228 million, becoming the world’s first tire production power (by year), tire production reached 1,146 million in 1980; The Today, China has become the world’s largest consumer of tires, but also the largest tire producer and exporter.
China’s tire industry’s international status is also increasing year by year. 2006 Global Tire 75 Rank, China has 17 companies on the list; 2016 annual global tire 75 rankings, mainland China has 30 companies on the list, which ranked the highest in the top 10 rubber.
The relevant state departments in recent years introduced a series of principles and policies for the development of the tire industry pointed out the direction.
In October 2010, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the “Tire Industry Policy”, “to promote the resources to the advantages of enterprises to focus on promoting the development of enterprises to the group, improve industrial concentration, optimize the organizational structure; guide production enterprises cluster development, Layout structure; speed up the elimination of backward production capacity, promote product structure adjustment and optimization and upgrading … … Encourage tire manufacturers to improve their own research and development capabilities, increase R & D investment, carry out technological innovation, the implementation of brand strategy, improve product technology, improve the core competitiveness of enterprises “And from the product adjustment, technical policy, supporting the construction of conditions such as guidance.
China’s tire enterprises to gradually enhance the awareness of independent innovation, production and research cooperation more active. At the same time, the industry vigorously develop the circular economy, promote environmental technology, attention to cleaner production and safe operation, has been effective. By continuously improving the ability of independent innovation, speed up the pace of development and application of new technologies, new technologies and new materials, the comprehensive competitiveness of China’s tire industry has improved significantly. In the economic stability of the environment, China’s rubber industry to maintain a steady and rapid development. The automobile industry is the main driving force for the development of the rubber industry. In a variety of consumer policies to support the support of China’s auto industry continued to maintain steady growth. China’s automobile production and sales in 2009 was 1,37910 million and 1,364.48 million, surpassing the United States in one fell swoop, becoming the world’s largest automobile market; since 2009, China’s automobile production and sales for seven consecutive years to maintain the world’s first. According to the statistics of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, China’s automobile production and sales in 2015 reached 2,450.33 million units, 2,459.76 million units, an increase of 3.29% and 4.71%. China’s new registered vehicles in 2015 amounted to 23.85 million, a net increase of 1,781 million units, car ownership of 172 million, the new registration and annual growth reached the highest level in history.
The tire industry presents the following trends: intelligent manufacturing
In the country put forward “China made 2025” under the general trend, the Chinese tire industry is ushering in the intelligent, automated, information technology changes.
In 2016, Shandong Province will determine the tire industry as the focus of the object to the production capacity, and the development of intelligent manufacturing, as the primary way to upgrade industrial transformation.
In this era background, the continuation of the traditional mode of production of tire companies, may face the risk of being eliminated.
Over the past two years, the triangle, double star, Wan Li, Sen Kirin and other prospective large-scale tire companies, have invested heavily to build “intelligent chemical plant.”
Hefei Wanli Tire Co., Ltd. General Manager Shi Zheng said that if the industry to achieve 4.0, compared with the same industry, Hefei Wanli’s per capita output will increase by 3 times, comprehensive energy consumption will be significantly reduced, product consistency will be greatly improved.
Compared with traditional production, “intelligent manufacturing” in solving labor costs, product homogeneity and improve efficiency, etc., the role will be more and more.
The development of intelligent manufacturing, has become the traditional industry transformation and upgrading of the general trend. Whether the tire business is intelligent road, may be related to its future fate and long-term development.
Green tire industrialization
Data show that the current global car ownership of about 830 million, the emissions of carbon dioxide emissions accounted for 18% of global emissions. Authorities predict that by 2030, car emissions of carbon dioxide will double. This means that the development of low-carbon environmental protection, fuel-efficient green tire industry, is imperative.
As early as 2012, China has officially launched the green tire industry work, its production process to practice the green manufacturing concept, advocate green use.
At present, the million force, the policy, exquisite, Fengyuan and 赛 round Jinyu, etc., has been the product through the green tire grade certification. R & D green tires, is in line with the national “two fusion” trend, but also enhance the competitiveness of enterprises an effective means of competitiveness. Waste tires
2015, China’s production of waste tires up to 12 million tons, while the recycling is only about 500 million tons. More than 60% of the waste tires are not recovered and become a new pollution.
China’s “thirteen five” plan proposed to vigorously develop the circular economy, which for the disposal of waste tires and technological development, providing a policy direction.
In April 2016, Linglong tires and Shanghai Jiaotong University to achieve cooperation in the development of comprehensive utilization of waste tires; June, Double Star Group to invest in the establishment of the first intelligent waste tire recycling plant.
The need for sustainable development, the extension of producer responsibility, and the enhancement of corporate social responsibility are leading many tire companies to focus on waste tire handling and guide the industry to a new path of development.
New materials research and development
China’s rubber resources have been heavily dependent on imports. At the same time, with the industrial upgrading, the traditional materials manufacturing tires, can not fully meet the new era background, people of intelligent, environmentally friendly, high-end tire demand.
In recent years, in response to the shortage of rubber resources supply situation, to achieve industrial transformation and upgrading, China’s major tire companies, research institutions, have started to develop new tire materials.
Beijing Dadu Gutan gum integrated materials research institute, officially established in Zhongguancun; Shandong exhibition nano-materials, Shandong Fengyuan tires and other companies to produce carbon nanotube tires; Sen Kirin global first graphene conductive tires intelligent production line production The In addition, the level of global tire research and development of technology, making dandelion rubber, silver rubber Ju rubber, silica and other materials come out for the development of new tire materials into the new force.
Trends show that tires new material contains a huge space for development, its industrialization is no longer fantasy.
Tire products from the price point of view, multinational brands rose mostly in the 8% -10%, while the local brand rose to a maximum of 45%. The main reason for this price increase is caused by rising raw material prices. Among them, the natural rubber as the main raw material for tire production, the price almost doubled.
In addition, the production of tires need the main materials, including the carcass, carbon black and wire, the price also appeared a substantial increase. Which rose nearly 50% of the cord, carbon black rose to 190%.
At present, the price adjustment is more frequent in Shandong small and medium-sized tire companies, and large-scale tire companies after several price adjustments, and now has basically stabilized.
Small tire business price advantage is getting smaller and smaller, more and more pressure to survive, coupled with a new round of environmental inspection at the beginning of 2017, is likely to usher in a number of tire business failures. After the tide after the tide, the domestic tire industry pattern will be a new change, the tire industry concentration will be further enhanced, leading enterprises obvious advantages, I believe the industry is also expected to usher in a real reshuffle.
Recently, a number of tire companies have spread the news of expansion capacity, most of which projects are located in Shandong. According to statistics, if all of these tire production capacity, Shandong Province, an annual increase of four to five million tons of tire production capacity.
March 1, 2017, located in Shandong Weifang Shandong Haohua Tire Co., Ltd. held 3 million sets of all-steel radial tire project groundbreaking ceremony. The tire project has included three, one, two semi-steel tire design capacity of 24 million units, three with an annual output of 2 million sets of steel tires. The new project is Haohua Tire Phase 5 project, with a total investment of 2 billion yuan, covering four production plants, four warehouses.
March 6, Shandong Huasheng Rubber Co., Ltd. 24 million / year high-performance semi-steel radial tire project started. The project began construction in 2013, the current part of the production line has been put into operation. The start of the project, is its design capacity within the new phase of the expansion project. Huaqin Rubber Industry Group said that in 2017, it will push forward a number of large projects. These projects include the new annual production capacity of 12 million sets of high-performance car tire project, 2 million sets of tire expansion project.
Recently, Yishui County, Shandong Province, Yongfeng Tire Co., Ltd. completed the second phase of the project infrastructure, 6 million sets of semi-steel production line is being installed equipment, plans to trial production at the end. The first phase of this project, with an annual output of 12 million sets of semi-steel radial tires, 200 million sets of all-steel truck radial tires, has been put into operation. Its second phase planning with an annual output of 12 million sets of semi-steel tires, 2 million sets of steel loaded tires. After the project is fully put into production, with an annual output of 24 million sets of semi-steel tires, 400 million sets of steel loaded tire.
According to the planning of Shandong Province, by the end of 2017, it is planned to eliminate all-steel kiln tire production capacity of 15 million, oblique tire production capacity of 12 million. By the end of 2020, the province plans to phase out all steel tubeless tire tire production capacity of 30 million, oblique tire production capacity of 20 million.
Which constitutes a multi-space intertwined effect of natural rubber.
6. Analysis of automobile production in each country
According to the China Automotive Industry Association statistical analysis, in February 2017, affected by the holiday factors, the overall level of car production and sales lower, but maintain a rapid growth year on year. January-February, automobile production and sales were growth, an increase over the same period last year has improved.
In February, automobile production of 215.96 million, the chain fell 8.84%, an increase of 33.77%; sales of 193.92 million, the chain fell 23.03%, an increase of 22.37%. Among them: passenger cars production 1.845 million, the chain fell 10.82%, an increase of 31.50%; sales of 163.27 million, the chain fell 26.39%, an increase of 18.29%. Commercial vehicle production of 31.22 million, an increase of 4.95%, an increase of 49.04%; sales of 306,500, growth of 1.72%, an increase of 49.90%. January-February, automobile production and sales 4.529 million and 445.91 million, an increase of 11.07% and 8.84%. Among them, the sales volume of passenger cars was 391.93 million and 3.8513 million, up by 9.89% and 6.29% respectively. The commercial vehicle production and sales were 609,600 and 607,800, up 19.35% and 28.28% respectively.
It is worth mentioning that commercial vehicles, heavy trucks continued the growth momentum in the fourth quarter of last year, two consecutive years of blowout. The first commercial vehicle network data show that heavy truck market in February this year is expected to sell all kinds of vehicles 88,000, growth of 6% over the same period last year, a substantial increase of 152%, a net increase of 53,000. This means that heavy truck sales in February hit a record high over the same period in the market. Benefit from the national governance over the implementation of the New Deal, infrastructure investment increased and the industry to bring up the stock brought about by the tension, coupled with the replacement of the old heavy truck demand, heavy truck recovery momentum and continue to this day. Is expected to 2017 annual heavy truck sales is expected to exceed 820,000, to achieve more than 12% growth.
New energy car sales in February showed a substantial rebound in the ring, but still very low year on year. From January to February, new energy vehicle production and sales fell by 33.5% and 30.5% respectively.
New energy car sales downturn in the expected, the model has not come out of the policy shift brought about by the negative impact period.
It is reported that the new energy vehicle enterprises in order to obtain new energy subsidies, to ensure that sales models first enter the “new energy vehicles to promote the use of recommended models directory”, and in the previous directory after the expulsion, many new energy models did not get subsidies, car prices do not want Wore no pressure on the sale of subsidies, so sales fell sharply, it is expected that the impact of policy shift on the new energy vehicles will continue throughout the first quarter. With the follow-up directory of the normalization of the release of local government subsidies and other uncertain factors landing, the industry’s overall production and sales are expected to open high-speed growth.
The new energy products catalog fast-paced launch, from the second quarter, the new energy vehicle production and sales is expected to amount, the industry return to the new industry, the new energy products, the new energy products, Order production. In the medium term, the new energy vehicles directory return to a batch of normal, will promote the steady growth in sales, is expected to third quarter data beautiful, the annual sales of new energy vehicles is expected to 700,000 to 75 million.
According to the data released by the Automobile Association, 2016 China to achieve car sales of 28.028 million, an increase of 13.7%. China Automobile Association announced the sales data is sold by the manufacturers to the number of dealers. Insiders pointed out that this data can not really reflect the end sales sold to consumers, because there are dealers carrying a lot of inventory situation, really can reflect the actual number of sales data should be on the card number.
Prior to the existence of some institutions in the market specializing in selling cards on the data, asking for expensive, and even car prices executives said that accurate sales data than the advanced production technology is more attractive to him. Real market data can guide enterprises to rational allocation of resources.
Whether it is production enterprises or circulation companies want to know their own brand of real sales situation and the needs of the region, the card data on the public is conducive to the production and operation of car prices.
Data behind the possession of commercial interests
It is understood that as early as the two sessions in 2008, there are representatives of public car on the card data, the results were rejected by the relevant departments on the grounds that the current information system technology is not mature, not open to the conditions.
Insiders pointed out that the relevant departments do not open the card data, which involves the huge commercial interests behind. Earlier media broke the news, many car companies have spent a lot of money from a company called Wuxi Huatong purchased on the card data.
In an online shopping platform, it was publicly sold in recent years, the country’s regional car on the card data. An independent car prices, said the general manager of the card data is not open and take profits, serious does not meet the needs of modern social development, the so-called confidentiality restrictions, is entirely an excuse.
Car card data can not be released free of charge, and now the car business profits are relatively high, with high prices to buy the card data is nothing.
Data disclosure to promote the development of the industry
As industry insiders Luo Lei also said that the card data should be open.
A 4S shop sales manager that will be on the card data published on many aspects are beneficial. If you have this data, whether it is on the car manufacturers, or on the 4S shop is a fundamental point of the role. For manufacturers, through this data, the development of production targets have a reference role, according to the data, at any time to adjust the sales strategy, the development of the annual marketing policy, so more accurate control of the time to sell, reduce the enterprise Marketing cost.
Which constitutes a multi-space intertwined, the role of neutral side.
Analysis of US Automobile Production
The global electric car industry seems to be at a turning point, a major change in the field of electric vehicles is under way, is expected to 2031, the world’s growing electric vehicles will significantly ease the demand for gasoline fuel.
Since the beginning of this century, since the advent of electric vehicles, the two major obstacles to its growth are the high price and the lack of charging facilities. Compared to internal combustion engine-driven vehicles, expensive lithium batteries are one of the main causes of high cost of electric vehicles, and the global electric car manufacturers are also facing a classic philosophical problem – whether it is “first chicken or first Egg “, that is, the size of electric vehicles and charging station practicality is matched. Consumers are reluctant to buy electric cars, and investors are reluctant to invest in building basic charging facilities unless they see the investment profitable.
cut costs
In the past five years, the two factors that have obstructed the development of the industry have changed dramatically: the cost of lithium batteries is only one-seventh of that of five years ago; the basic charge of the two countries (the world’s two largest auto markets) Facilities are gradually in place.
In 2010, the cost of lithium batteries was $ 750 / kWh (kWh). And now, GM claims that its new energy car Chevrolet Bolt’s battery costs only $ 145 / kWh, ahead of the global counterparts. In addition, GM said its goal is to reduce battery costs to $ 100 / kWh in 2022. This is considered to be a “huge change” in the field of global electric vehicles, and according to the analysis, if the cost of electric vehicles to the price of the battery, it will have the traditional fuel vehicles competing capital.
Increase investment in infrastructure
China National Grid announced in May 2014 that it will support the development of private decentralized energy organizations and encourage private companies to invest in electric vehicle charging stations. State Grid is one of China’s largest state-owned enterprises. Its unprecedented move to drive a lot of investment to invest in infrastructure. Looking ahead, China’s goal is to have 4.8 million charging stations in 2020 to provide demand for 5 million electric vehicles.
The United States, the development of the charging station has also increased significantly. From 2010 to 2016, the number of charging stations in most parts of the country increased by more than 125% per year. Retailers and hotel owners are installing charging facilities to attract customers; more than 100 large cities in the United States have formed clean city alliances (the alliance is a nonprofit partnership that aims to promote a clean environment.), Encourage the installation of more Charging facilities; eager to sell non-peak power of the power companies are also stepping up investment in charging stations. In addition, the US charging infrastructure will be further boosted from the public settlement fund. As part of the agreement with the Environmental Protection Agency, Volkswagen has agreed to invest $ 2 billion over the next 10 years to promote the development and use of US clean energy vehicle technology, including investment in US charging infrastructure. Beyond the high cost of electric vehicles With the reduction of battery costs and the continuous expansion of charging infrastructure, global sales of electric vehicles tripled in 2013 and 42% in 2016 to 773,600. Among them, China sold 351,000, accounting for 45% of total sales of electric passenger cars, ahead of the world. This figure does not include last year in China sales of 160,000 commercial vehicles. Last year, China’s largest sales of pure electric buses, as well as flourishing in China’s second and third tier cities of 700,000 low-speed electric vehicles. Following China’s Europe last year sold 221,000 electric vehicles, the United States ranked third, sales of 157,000. Even in China, the proportion of electric car sales is still relatively low. Recent advances in technology and the current investment in the construction of the charging infrastructure, is the future growth of electric car sales blueprint.
According to foreign media reports, the US electric car market sales performance is strong, in February sold more than 12,000, an increase of 55%, while the market share also reached 0.92%.
Thus the growth of the US auto industry on the composition of long and short interwoven, the role of neutral side.
Analysis of Japan ‘s Automobile Production
According to the Japan Automobile Dealers Association released data, Japan in February 2017 new car sales 484724, an increase of 7.4%. Of which non-mini car sales 3,12035, an increase of 13.4%; mini car sales 172689, down 2%. According to reports, the Japanese Automobile Manufacturers Association President Nishikawa Guangren said recently that Japan’s domestic auto market has been open to the outside world. However, the car manufacturers under the current association are preparing to cooperate with the Japanese government and the US government to eliminate disputes between the two countries on import and export trade.
At the monthly press conference held by the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association, Nishikawa said: If they (carmakers) find it harder to do business in some areas, we will actively discuss and take a solution Program. Japanese carmakers are not only willing to address the dissatisfaction in the United States, but will also defend the president’s strategy of “spontaneous” jobs, rather than taking the appropriate trade, under the constant pressure of trade pressure by US President Donald Donald Trelamp protectionism.
Just this month, the US government has to the World Trade Organization [microblogging] launched a complaint against Japan. The US government believes that the Japanese domestic auto market has imposed non-tariff barriers to imported products to limit its imports.
Nishikawa Hiroshi said, unlike the United States, the Japanese government to impose zero tariff on imported car products. Therefore, in Japan, the regulation of imports of automotive products and inspection of differentiated practices, it is easy to be seen as a non-tariff barriers.
Previously, Trump has repeatedly urged from Japan, the United States or other regions of the car manufacturers, hope that they are in the United States to produce more automotive products. Trump also threatened, otherwise, the US government will impose a border tax on imported products. In addition, the US president also proposed to North Korea free trade agreement to resume negotiations to achieve the goal of stimulating the growth of domestic jobs in the United States.
Nishikawa Hiroshi said: I do not think they want to hurt those who like free trade countries. They are trying to increase jobs in the United States, I do not think this is equivalent to trade protectionism.
Nishikawa Hiroshi also said that the promotion of local economic development is part of the work of national leaders. From a country’s prime minister or president’s point of view, they naturally hope that (enterprises) in their own country to invest. The trade policy proposed by President Trump, in particular the North American Free Trade Agreement, has had an impact on US automakers and is almost equivalent to the impact on Japanese automakers.
In fact, various independent research reports have predicted that Trump’s approach to border adjustment taxes or the resumption of North American FTA negotiations could result in a significant increase in manufacturing costs for US, European and Japanese carmakers. Nishikawa said: the three major US automakers and Japanese automakers face the same situation, if the North American free trade agreement from the current form of change, then we will jointly take measures to solve these problems.
Nishikawa people also played down the influence of Trump’s proposed changes to the US fuel economy. Previously, the Obama administration set ambitious fuel economy goals for the United States. Car manufacturers around the world have locked their product strategy in improving fuel economy, and this trend will continue.
Nishikawa wide people said: the main direction of the development of automotive technology, I do not think there will be much change in the future. In April, Japan and the United States will begin to discuss the economic relations between the two countries. Which constitutes a neutral effect of natural rubber.
Analysis of European automobile production
According to the British Reuters reported on March 16, the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA) announced the same day, Europe in February new car registration volume increased by 2.1%, even in Germany as the market and the public, Opel, Vauxhall and Peugeot This popular mainstream brands, new car sales are down.
The European Union and the European Free Trade Association countries’ car sales reached 1,114,443 vehicles last month. Among them, the Italian new car sales growth of 6.2%, the Netherlands increased by 15%, Spain increased by 0.2%.
Sales in major markets, including Germany, France and the UK, fell 2.6%, 2.9% and 0.3% respectively in February, but traditionally sales growth in February will slow.
Volkswagen brand in February sales fell 7%, Peugeot sales fell 3.7%, Opel / Vauxhall’s sales fell 1.2%. The biggest winner in February was Fiat, with sales up 8.3% and Renault’s sales up 5.3%. Luxury car brand, Mercedes-Benz sales increased by 3.4%; Audi increased by 2.2%; BMW fell by 0.5%.
Which is a high impact on the composition of natural rubber.
7. Conclusion
As the global macroeconomic, financial situation, and natural rubber market supply and demand is still showing a neutral bearish trend, natural rubber supply due to climate and human factors to reduce the trend to ease, consumer demand is due to economic growth, and slow steady growth, so days Rubber market supply and demand also showed long and short intertwined, neutral bearish trend, which constitutes a neutral bearish effect on the natural rubber market. Market outlook, due to the rubber by the long and short intertwined, neutral bearish factors, Hujiao short-term trend may still show continued unilateral deep decline characteristics, the medium may still return to low regional shock consolidation trend.
Translated by Google Translator from http://market.cria.org.cn/25/37531.html
