Introduction: China’s total import volume of natural rubber in March 2024 continued to decline Y-O-Y and was at a low level since the same period in 2021. In April, the import volume of natural rubber is expected to slide M-O-M and Y-O-Y.
1. China’s natural rubber import volume fell Y-O-Y in March
In March 2024, China imported 492.5kt of natural rubber, up 41.81% M-O-M but down 17.67% Y-O-Y, which was mainly due to the large import base in March 2023, output reduction of upstream products, high international prices of natural rubber and delayed shipments. From January to March 2024, China’s total import volume of natural rubber was 1,408kt, down 18.36% Y-O-Y.
2. March natural rubber imports by products
China’s import volume of mixed rubber was the largest in March at 280.9kt, down 19.25% Y-O-Y. The import volume of smoked rubber sheet and natural latex saw the largest decrement. On the one hand, the supply of new rubber in southern Thailand was limited due to unsmooth production of feedstock. On the other hand, the international price of natural rubber was higher than China’s prices, hindering import enthusiasm. In addition, the soft demand for natural latex dragged down the import volume.
Mar China Natural Rubber Import by Products |
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Product |
Import volume (kt) |
M-O-M |
Y-O-Y |
Avg. import price ($/mt) |
Y-O-Y |
2024 total import volume (kt) |
Y-O-Y |
Total import volume |
492.50 |
+41.77% |
-17.60% |
1,533.10 |
+11.03% |
1,408.00 |
-18.34% |
Mixed rubber |
280.90 |
+30.53% |
-19.25% |
1,505.28 |
+8.88% |
868.20 |
-19.87% |
Standard rubber |
158.80 |
+66.90% |
-8.71% |
1,560.30 |
+14.62% |
394.40 |
-12.60% |
Natural latex |
40.20 |
+39.93% |
-30.95% |
1,189.85 |
+10.12% |
112.40 |
-15.60% |
RSS |
8.40 |
+71.15% |
-34.23% |
1,660.85 |
+5.77% |
21.10 |
-52.64% |
Compound Rubber |
4.20 |
+23.41% |
-14.16% |
5,405.66 |
+7.27% |
11.90 |
+0.89% |
Source: GACC |
2.1 Mixed rubber import volume dropped by 19.25% Y-O-Y in March.
In March, China imported 280.9kt of mixed rubber, up 30.53% M-O-M but down 19.25% Y-O-Y. Therein, the volume of mixed rubber imported from Thailand was 126.6kt, down 35.83% Y-O-Y, lower than the five-year average level (162.7kt). The volume of mixed rubber imported from Vietnam was 76kt, down 16.4% Y-O-Y, slightly higher than the five-year average level (71.6kt). Upstream production suffered profit losses, frustrating the production enthusiasm, and the international price of natural rubber was higher than China’s prices, causing China’s import volume to decline Y-O-Y. In addition, the delay in shipments and the repurchase of some resources also led to a decline in import volume in China. The volume of mixed rubber imported from Laos was 16.3kt, up 145.42 Y-O-Y. The rubber tapping in Yunnan did not start, and producers needed to import feedstock from Laos to produce rubber used in tires.
2.2 Standard rubber import volume fell by 8.71% Y-O-Y in March.
In March, China’s standard rubber import volume was 158.8kt, down 8.17% Y-O-Y. China mainly imported standard rubber from Thailand, Malaysia and Cote d’Ivoire in March, and the import volume from the three countries took up 89.94% of the total. Therein, the volume of standard rubber imported from Thailand was 84.5kt, up 57.07% Y-O-Y. The considerable delivery profit of TSR20 and favorable export of China’s tire supported the standard rubber imports. The import volume from Cote d’Ivoire was 29.1kt, down 30.87% Y-O-Y. China’s import volume from Cote d’Ivoire has gradually increased in recent years due to the price advantage, but the high base in March 2023 made a Y-O-Y decrease in import volume in March 2024.
Mar China Standard Rubber Top 5 Trade Partners Import Volume Change |
||||||
Trade Partner |
Import volume (kt) |
M-O-M |
Y-O-Y |
Avg. import price ($/mt) |
M-O-M |
Y-O-Y |
Thailand |
84.50 |
+90.19% |
+57.07% |
1,588.37 |
+3.20% |
+11.16% |
Malaysia |
29.40 |
+134.78% |
+7.27% |
1,583.98 |
+2.44% |
+12.27% |
Cote d’Ivoire |
29.10 |
+15.91% |
-30.87% |
1,444.77 |
+4.43% |
+5.02% |
Indonesia |
7.20 |
+4.20% |
-75.23% |
1,675.21 |
+4.46% |
+19.82% |
Vietnam |
4.20 |
+56.12% |
+41.73% |
1,674.35 |
+1.68% |
+8.71% |
Source: GACC |
It is expected that China’s natural rubber import volume may slip Y-O-Y in April. From historical seasonal performance, the probability of an M-O-M decline in natural rubber import volume in April is 90%, mainly due to the high base of imports in March, and there is a high probability that April will show a seasonal decline. From a Y-O-Y perspective, it is more likely that the downward trend will continue. On the one hand, the import volume of natural rubber in March 2023 reached around 570kt, which was the highest level in the same period in history. On the other hand, the overseas market in March was in a production slack season, and the international price of natural rubber was higher than China’s prices.
Source: SCI
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