Natural rubber production is still in the off-season, and downstream tire factories are starting to work. Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia jointly announced that they will implement “rubber export restrictions”, which may promote short-term natural rubber imports. Natural rubber prices are expected to continue to rise.
(1) The main producing areas in China will stop cutting, and the major foreign producing areas will enter the low season of rubber cutting.
In February, major domestic production areas such as Hainan, Yunnan and Guangdong were in a period of cessation, and major foreign producing areas such as Thailand and Vietnam entered the low season of tapping, and the supply of natural rubber decreased.
(2) The domestic spot price of natural rubber has risen.
In the domestic market, the average price of all latex in Shanghai and Shandong in February was 11,358 yuan per ton, up 3.5% from the previous month and down 2.2% year-on-year; the average price of mixed rubber in Shandong was 11,123 yuan per ton, up 3.4% from the previous month and up 1.1% year-on-year. In Southeast Asia, the average price of RSS3 in Thailand was US$1,590 per ton, up 6.1% from the previous month and down 5.9% year-on-year. The average price of SIR20 in Indonesia was US$1,340 per ton, down 0.9% from the previous month and down 4.3% from the previous year. The average price of SMR20 in Malaysia was US$1,396 per ton. The chain rose by 4.3%, down 6.2% year-on-year.
(3) The price of natural rubber futures rose.
In February, the average price of the Shanghai Futures Exchange’s main contract (1905) this month was 1,090 yuan per ton, up 4.4% from the previous month and down 5.0% year-on-year. On the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, the main contract for rubber (1907) settled at an average price of 192.2 yen per kilogram (US$1,740 per ton), up 5.5% from the previous month and up 1.3% year-on-year.
(4) The import of natural rubber decreased, and the import of mixed rubber increased.
According to customs statistics, China imported 173,900 tons of natural rubber in January, a decrease of 39.2% from the previous month and a decrease of 27.0% from the same period of last year. The composite rubber was 0.86 million tons, up 17.8% from the previous month and down 12.2% year-on-year; the blended rubber was 326,300 tons, up 21.7% from the previous month. , an increase of 3.0% over the same period.
(5) Increase in domestic rubber stocks.
As of February 22, 2019, the Shanghai Futures Exchange had a natural rubber inventory of 437,900 tons, an increase of 0.8% from the previous month and an increase of 0.8% year-on-year.
Qingdao Free Trade Zone As of February 22, 2019, the total rubber inventory was 240,000 tons, an increase of 1.1 times from the previous month and a decrease of 4.0% from the same period last year.
(6) It is expected that the price of natural rubber will continue to rise in the later period.
From the perspective of supply, the main producing areas at home and abroad are still in the period of stop cutting or low-yield in March. Natural rubber production is still in the off-season. It is expected that the supply of natural rubber will decrease. From the perspective of inventory, inventory will continue to increase this month, and high stocks will suppress the later prices. From the downstream market, downstream enterprises gradually started production after the Spring Festival holiday. These enterprises will increase the purchase of raw materials after the inventory is consumed. On February 22, Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia jointly announced that they will implement the “Rubber Export Restriction Measures”. It is likely to promote the import of natural rubber in the short term. Based on the above factors, if there is no unexpected event, it is expected that the price of natural rubber will continue to rise in the later period.
Translated by Google Translator from http://www.cria.org.cn/newsdetail/48165.html
