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Monday, May 29, 2023

Rubber deficiency is good for Tokyo’s peak in Hong Kong to lower futures prices

The Tokyo morning RSS1908 contract opened at 185.3 yen, down 4.5 yen from the previous trading day. The TSR1909 contract opened at 166.4 yen, down 1.1 yen from the previous trading day. The USD/JPY exchange rate was around 110.09 in the morning.

Last weekend’s Tokyo rubber market, with the support of lack of good news, made more efforts to further lighten up the position of the RSS far-month contract, which fell below the 190 yen one-line integer. Since the Japanese holiday was closed on Thursday, the dollar’s decline caused by the Fed statement released on Wednesday night was reflected in the Tokyo rubber market after the opening of the weekend. Although the time was separated by one day, since the USD/JPY exchange rate did not show short-covering after falling below the 111 yen line, it was due to the fact that Japanese companies generally faced annual settlement at the end of March, and investment funds and other institutions opened newly. The willingness to open positions is low, and the financial market as a whole is dominated by the market. On the other hand, in the mid-term rise of the Tokyo rubber market at the beginning of the year, the spot of the hedging began to enter Hong Kong in March, which led to an increase in the inventory of the Tokyo Commodity Exchange. As of March 10, the exchange’s statistical inventory came to 10,872 tons. At the same time, in the spot market, some of the old goods that were due at the beginning of the year were not processed, resulting in higher delivery pressures in Tokyo in the next few months. A large surplus in the near and far months will result in a market sentiment in the short position, thus lowering the futures price.

In terms of spot, the March FOB price of No. 3 tobacco on March 22 was around 55.99 baht, down 0.74 baht from the previous trading day. The No. 20 standard rubber FOB price was around 48.13 baht, down 0.9 baht from the previous trading day. The USS spot price was around 48 baht, unchanged from the previous trading day.

Technically, after the price of the RSS far-month contract fell below the 190 yen line, the short-term conversion line and the medium-term baseline formed a crossover, which made the possibility of Tokyo RSS entering the down market in the medium term increased. In the short term, the 195 yen line may become a new resistance level, waiting for the intersection of the late line and the price body and the positional relationship between the price body and the cloud ceiling.

The spread between the 1908 month contract and the Shanghai 1909 month contract (Tokyo-Shanghai) at the close of Tokyo on March 22 was -100 USD/ton.

Weekly review

The price of the RSS far-month contract in the Tokyo rubber market last week only rebounded last Monday. After that, it continued to lighten down the market in the context of the dollar’s decline. The weekend closed at a low level after falling below the 190 yen one-line integer. At the same time, the Shanghai rubber market fell below the key 12,000 yuan in the evening session after the main contract was transferred from May to September, and the market sentiment was once again strengthened.

Let’s take a closer look at the main factors that influenced the price changes in the Tokyo rubber market last week. On the first trading day after the closing of the second meeting of the 13th National People’s Congress in China last Monday, due to the government’s new round of economic stimulus expectations, the overall financial market in China has performed well, but the rising market has continued. On one trading day, Shanghai rubber futures prices failed to maintain the 12,000 yuan integer on Tuesday and fell again. After the Fed’s meeting on interest rates announced on Wednesday, the content of the statement was more biased towards the doves. Combined with the recent weak economic indicators in Europe and the United States, the market’s concerns about the world economic recession have further strengthened. Reflected in the rubber market, there is a sign that the financial property has changed to a bearish direction. The Tokyo RSS far-month contract has been falling since last Tuesday, in the context of the USD/JPY exchange rate falling below 111 yen. The monthly contract price came below the 190 yen line below Friday.

In terms of macroeconomics, the biggest point of attention last week was the content of the statement that was made public after the Fed meeting. Although maintaining the current benchmark interest rate unchanged in line with market expectations, in the economic outlook guidance, the original rate hike expectation of 1-2 times in the year will be changed to a rate hike by 2020, and the asset will be terminated earlier in September this year. Balance sheet. The main reason why the Fed made such changes early in the first quarter of financial policy was that the indicators of the US economy began to show signs of weak growth since the end of last year. Whether it is the late indicators such as employment statistics or the leading indicators of the manufacturing new orders index, there are different degrees of decline, which makes people have to think of the intensification of Sino-US trade friction since the second half of last year. What is worse is that even if the two sides negotiated and negotiated again and again, the two sides could not reach an agreement. At the same time, after President Trump announced the decision to extend the moratorium to continue to increase the tariff period, the situation has signs of long-term development. The market’s response to the development of the situation has also slowly shifted from a short-term positive to a medium- and long-term attitude.

In the spot market, the major rubber-producing countries in Southeast Asia have completely reduced their rubber exports. At the time of the Tokyo March contract delivery, the recent increase in the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s statistical inventory has put more pressure on the market. Especially after a large number of receiving in January and February, the final destination of these goods became the biggest doubt in the Japanese spot market. Originally there were nearly 1,000 tons of goods due in March, but from the recent news, these goods did not appear in the warehouse receipts expected to be delivered in March, and the remaining choice is nothing more than re-export. Due to the current positive production cut-off period, the spot price has provided the possibility of spot processing, but once the main rubber producing countries are opened in mid-April, including the 3,000 tons of goods received in January at the end of 2018, how to deal with the goods, Tokyo The market will also face the problem of destocking.

Last week’s change in positions, with the decline in the price of the distant month, the overall position and position reduction is obvious, of which the 1200 hands in the May contract in May are particularly bright. Due to the settlement of Japanese companies’ fiscal year near the end of March, speculative forces have chosen the possibility of ending the market. At the same time, the long and short direction selected when the speculative funds re-enter the market after entering April will become the main factor affecting the medium and long-term rubber market. Special attention should be paid.

Translated by Google Translator from http://www.cria.org.cn/newsdetail/48169.html

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