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Fed doves, Fed hawks: US central bankers in their own words

Fed doves, Fed hawks: US central bankers in their own words
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: The U.S. Federal Reserve building is pictured in Washington, March 18, 2008. REUTERS/Jason Reed/File Photo

 

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(Reuters) – The labels “dove” and “hawk” have long been used by central bank watchers to describe the monetary policy leanings of policymakers, with a dove more focused on risks to the labor market and a hawk more focused on the threat of inflation.

The topsy-turvy economic environment of the coronavirus pandemic sidelined those differences, turning U.S. Federal Reserve officials at first universally dovish as they sought to provide massive accommodation to a cratering economy, and then, when inflation surged, into hawks who uniformly backed aggressive rate hikes. Now, as Fed policymakers note improvement on inflation and some cooling in the labor market but also stronger-than-expected economic growth, divisions are more evident, with more varied choices: to raise rates again, skip for now but stay poised for more later, or take an extended pause.

All 12 regional Fed presidents discuss and debate monetary policy at Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, held eight times a year, but only five cast votes at any given meeting, including the New York Fed president and four others who vote for one year at a time on a rotating schedule.

The following chart offers a stab at how officials currently stack up on their outlook for Fed policy and how to balance their goals of stable prices and full employment. The designations are based on comments and published remarks; for more on the thinking that shaped these hawk-dove designations, click on the photos in the graphic.

Dove Dovish Centrist Hawkish Hawk

Lisa Cook, Jerome Michelle

Governor, John Powell, Fed Bowman,

permanent Williams, Chair, Governor,

voter: “If New York permanent permanent

confirmed, I Fed voter: “We voter: “The

will stay President, want to see policy rate

focused on permanent convincing may need to

inflation voter: “My evidence rise further

until our job current really, that and stay

is done.” June assessment we have restrictive

21, 2023 is that we reached the for some time

are at, or appropriate to return

near, the level.” Sept inflation to

peak level 20, 2023 the FOMC’s

of the goal.” Oct 11,

target 2023

range for

the

federal

funds

rate.”

Sept. 29,

2023

Patrick Philip Christopher Loretta

Harker, Jefferson, Waller, Mester,

Philadelphia Vice Governor, Cleveland Fed

Fed President, Chair: “We permanent President,

2023 voter: are in a voter: “The 2024 voter:

“Right now, I sensitive financial “We are

think that period of markets are basically at

we’ve probably risk tightening up or near” the

done enough.” management and they are peak of the

Aug. 24, 2023 , where we going to do tightening

have to some of the campaign. Oct

balance work for 6, 2023.

the risk us… We will

of not see how those

having higher rates

tightened feed into

enough, what we do on

against policy in the

the risk coming

of policy months.” Oct

being too 11, 2023

restrictiv

e.” Oct 9,

2023

Raphael Michael Neel

Bostic, Barr, Vice Kashkari,

Atlanta Fed Chair of Minneapolis

President, Supervisio Fed

2024 voter: “I n, President,

actually don’t permanent 2023 voter:

think we need voter: “In “Today I put

to increase my view, a 40%

rates the most probability”

anymore.” Oct important on the

10, 2023 question scenario that

at this “we would

point is have to push

not the federal

whether an funds rate

additional higher,

rate potentially

increase meaningfully

is needed higher.” Sept

this year 26, 2023

or not,

but rather

how long

we will

need to

hold rates

at a

sufficient

ly

restrictiv

e level to

achieve

our

goals.”

Oct 2,

2023

Austan Lorie Logan,

Goolsbee, Dallas Fed

Chicago President,

Fed 2023 voter:

President, “If long-term

2023 interest

voter: “On rates remain

the real elevated

side I because of

feel like higher term

nothing premiums,

has there may be

happened less need to

so far raise the fed

that is funds rate.”

convincing Oct 9, 2023

evidence

that we

are off

the golden

path.” Oct

5, 2023

Mary Daly,

San Thomas

Francisco Barkin,

Fed Richmond Fed

President, President,

2024 2024 voter:

voter: “I “It’s good

would say for the Fed

now the to take some

risks of time and see

how we how the data

balance plays out.”

those Sept. 28,

things are 2023

roughly

balanced

over-tight

ening

versus

under-tigh

tening —

but we

still have

high

inflation

and the

labor

market’s

still

strong.”

Oct 10,

2023

Susan

Collins,

Boston Fed

President,

2025

voter:

“While we

are likely

near, and

could be

at, the

peak for

policy

rates,

further

tightening

could be

warranted

depending

on

incoming

informatio

n.” Oct

11, 2023

Note: Fed policymakers began raising interest rates in March 2022 to bring down high inflation. Their most recent policy rate hike, to a range of 5.25%-5.5%, was in July.

Most policymakers as of September expected one more rate hike by year’s end. Neither Jeff Schmid, Kansas City Fed’s president since August and a voter in 2025, nor Adriana Kugler, a permanent voter who was confirmed to the Fed Board in September, have yet made any substantive policy remarks. The St. Louis Fed has begun a search to succeed president, James Bullard, who took a job in academia; the new chief will be a 2025 voter.

Source: Investing.com

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