China Natural Rubber Mainstream Grade Market Price (unit: RMB/mt) |
||||
Date |
Shanghai SCRWF |
Shanghai SVR 3L mixed |
Shandong RSS 3 |
Yunnan SCR 10 |
May 10, 2024 |
13,400-13,450 |
13,550-13,600 |
17,150-17,300 |
12,500-12,600 |
May 11, 2024 |
13,400-13,450 |
13,550-13,600 |
17,150-17,300 |
12,500-12,600 |
May 13, 2024 |
13,400-13,500 |
13,600-13,650 |
17,300-17,400 |
12,550-12,700 |
May 14, 2024 |
13,600-13,700 |
13,750-13,800 |
17,600-17,600 |
12,700-12,800 |
May 15, 2024 |
13,600-13,700 |
13,650-13,750 |
17,200-17,500 |
12,650-12,750 |
May 16, 2024 |
13,700-13,800 |
13,700-13,800 |
17,300-17,600 |
12,800-12,850 |
Avg. last week |
13,487.50 |
13,581.25 |
17,343.75 |
12,550.00 |
Avg. this week |
13,558.33 |
13,666.67 |
17,366.67 |
12,666.67 |
Change rate |
+0.53% |
+0.63% |
+0.13% |
+0.93% |
Change |
+70.83 |
+85.42 |
+22.92 |
+116.67 |
Natural Rubber Import Market Price (unit: $/mt, RMB/mt) |
|||||||
Date |
STR 20 spot |
SMR 20 spot |
STR 20 mixed spot |
STR 20 cargo |
STR 20 mixed cargo |
SVR 3L mixed cargo |
STR 20 mixed |
May 9, 2024 |
1,610-1,620 |
1,600-1,620 |
1,620-1,630 |
1,620-1,640 |
1,625-1,650 |
1,670-1,670 |
13,150-13,200 |
May 10, 2024 |
1,600-1,610 |
1,600-1,610 |
1,610-1,625 |
1,615-1,650 |
1,620-1,650 |
1,665-1,670 |
13,100-13,150 |
May 11, 2024 |
1,600-1,610 |
1,600-1,610 |
1,610-1,625 |
1,615-1,650 |
1,620-1,650 |
1,665-1,670 |
13,100-13,150 |
May 13, 2024 |
1,630-1,650 |
1,630-1,650 |
1,635-1,645 |
1,630-1,665 |
1,640-1,670 |
1,670-1,690 |
13,300-13,350 |
May 14, 2024 |
1,630-1,640 |
1,630-1,640 |
1,635-1,640 |
1,640-1,665 |
1,640-1,670 |
1,660-1,670 |
13,300-13,350 |
May 15, 2024 |
1,640-1,650 |
1,640-1,650 |
1,645-1,655 |
1,645-1,670 |
1,655-1,680 |
1,690-1,700 |
13,400-13,450 |
Avg. last week |
1,615.00 |
1,605.83 |
1,622.50 |
1,630.00 |
1,632.50 |
1,670.00 |
13,175.00 |
Avg. this week |
1,624.17 |
1,623.33 |
1,631.25 |
1,642.08 |
1,647.50 |
1,674.17 |
13,250.00 |
Change rate |
+0.57% |
+1.09% |
+0.54% |
+0.74% |
+0.92% |
+0.25% |
+0.57% |
Market Review
Prices of RMB-denominated natural rubber spot resources saw an uptick this week. Within this week, the price of Shanghai natural rubber futures advanced, pushing up the spot price slightly. In terms of demand, the demand from the downstream tire industry didn’t ramp up notably. The supply of new rubber climbed slowly. Besides, high cost still underpinned the natural rubber price. Therefore, the natural rubber price in the spot market went higher. Downstream users mainly purchased natural rubber on a need-to basis, and the overall trading atmosphere remained mediocre.
Market Forecast
Forecast: China’s natural rubber market will possibly remain range-bound next week. In the short run, players mainly adopt mixed sentiment to the market, as there are no new influencing factors from supply and demand. Thus, the natural rubber price is likely to move sideways next week. In terms of supply, from the perspective of seasonality, the output of new rubber is expected to ramp up. However, at present, frequent rainfalls are seen in producing areas of Hainan. Yet, it’s dry and less rainy in producing areas in Yunnan, Thailand, etc. Thus, the output of new rubber may be released slowly, and the supply pressure may be limited. In terms of demand, for lack of new orders, downstream all-steel tire enterprises may present thin appetites for purchasing natural rubber amid stockpiling of finished products. Thus, the demand may fail to bolster the natural rubber price. In the short run, the natural rubber price may be range-bound. It is estimated that the weekly average price of SCRWF in Shanghai may be RMB 13,600/mt, and its mainstream prices may be in the range of RMB 13,300-13,800/mt next week. Players should pay attention to the output release of new rubber in producing areas and the impact of the natural rubber selling/purchasing storage policy.
Supply: Under the seasonal cycle, the output of new rubber both in China’s and overseas producing areas may warm up. However, in the short run, frequent rainfalls may affect the rubber tapping work in Hainan. It’s dry and less rainy in producing areas of Yunnan and Thailand, affecting the progress of rubber tapping. Thus, the output of new rubber may be released slowly. Players should eye on rainfalls in producing areas and feedstock release status.
Demand: Although the operating rate of the downstream tire industry may recover in the short run, the inventory at all-steel tire enterprises may pile up, which may curb the purchasing appetites for feedstock. Thus, the demand may fail to underpin the natural rubber price.
Discussion about this post