MARKET COMMENTARY
Natural rubber in the local market have been under the strangle hold of bears. RSS4 dropped again towards the close of the week to hit the five month low following short covering rallies witnessed earlier during the last week. Weak demand from the tyre sector and higher imports continued to ponder upon the market despite arrivals to the market being on the lower side. In the physical market, the grade was hovering near Rs.165.00 a kg while on NMCE, the most active November rubber futures posted losses for the fifth consecutive week.
Natural rubber prices are rather steady in the overseas market on Monday as the week’s session begins. SHFE as well as AFET rubber futures hardly changed. Activities are likely to be on the lower side as the trend setting TOCOM exchange stayed closed owing Health and Sports Day being observed in Japan.
MARKET NEWS
China, the world’s largest natural rubber importer, imported 180,000 metric tons of the material in Sep this year, 5.9% more than in the previous month but 14.3% less than in the same month of last year, according to the statistics released by the General Administration of Customs.
According to Thai Premier, China has agreed to buy 200000 tonnes of Thai rubber per year.
Rubber inventories in the warehouses monitored by SHFE rose 1.2 per cent to 128842 tonnes last week.
According to Thai Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives, the number of para-rubber farmers applying for the Government’s compensation program has surpassed the target figure by 100,000.
According to ANRPC, natural rubber output among its member countries is likely to rise 3.2 per cent in next year to 10.968 million tonnes.
Natural rubber imports by India in September almost tripled to 45581 tonnes on YoY basis as tyre makers increased purchases from overseas market.
According to the chairman of the Rubber Association of Indonesia, the nation’s natural rubber production for 2013 is seen at 3.2 million tonnes from 3.04 million tonnes produced last year.
TECHNICAL VIEW
RUBBER Nov NMCE
While the broad trend stays bearish, the recent low of 16380 seems to provide firm support to prices and is likely to call for a pullback in the near term towards 16900-17900 ranges. However, a direct fall below the same could add on to the selling pressure.
TURNAROUND
|
Resistances |
LEVELS |
Supports |
|
16700/16840 |
17300-17000-16380 |
16380/16250 |
|
16950/17150 |
|
16060/15940 |
|
17300/17500 |
|
15800/15500 |
Source: Geojit Comtrade
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