[Geojit Comtrade] Daily report on Natural Rubber: November 14, 2014

MARKET COMMENTARY

⊳ Mild upsides were witnessed in the local natural rubber market on Thursday. In the physical market, RSS4 inched up to Rs.118.50 while on NMCE, the commodity culminated the session in green. Positive moves in the overseas market probably lifted sentiments amidst decline in production. However, persisting worries over demand weighed on the overall market sentiments.

⊳ As the week’s session culminated, natural rubber in the overseas market is in red. TOCOM rubber futures retreated following the recent advances probably on profit booking. Weak crude oil prices and worries over demand too weighed on. In the meantime market attention is probably shifting towards the meeting of the top natural rubber producing nations scheduled next week.

MARKET

⊳ Malaysia’s natural rubber production in September 2014 rose 20.5 per cent or 10,242 tonnes to 60,187 tonnes compared to August 2014. However, on a year-on-year basis, the production showed a decline of 16.7 per cent.

⊳ According to Rubber Board, India’s natural rubber imports in October surged 27.7 percent from a year ago to 36,865 tonnes while consumption in the month rose nearly 2 percent on year to 83,000 tonnes. The country’s production in the month fell 32.6 percent on year to 58,000 tonnes as some farmers skipped tapping after prices fell to their lowest level in five years.

⊳ According to International Rubber Consortium, floods in Thailand’s southern province of Nakhon Si Thammarat have disrupted tapping. This province has 1.5 million rai (593,053 acres) of rubber plantations, 3rd largest in Thailand.

⊳ China’s natural rubber imports in October stood at 300000 tonnes.

⊳ Rubber Mark and Market Fed to buy rubber by paying Rs.5 a kg above the Rubber Board rates.

⊳ Inventories in Qingdao, China’s main rubber-trading hub, -3.1% to 139,400 mt: Qingdao International Rubber Exchange Market.

⊳ Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia likely to meet on Nov. 20-21 to discuss plans to set prices together and reduce supply.

TECHNICAL VIEW

RUBBER Dec NMCE

As long as the strong support at 11450 remains undisturbed, pullbacks are likely towards 11800/12000 ranges. Yet, it is necessary to clear 12100 to lessen the prevailing weakness. A direct fall below 11450 with volume will intensify bearishness.

Source: Geojit Comtrade