Points: macro side: the United States “strong possibility” drop “financial cliff”, but this is not necessarily a bad thing. Once the matter is true, the strong reaction of the market would force will eventually reach a budget agreement in the two parties.
The latest Economic Outlook Survey released by the National Association of Business Economics 17, most economists expect the U.S. economy in 2013 will be a steady speed, the overall moderate growth. The expected average annual growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) in 2013 was 2.1%, the end of the year there will be a significant increase compared to the beginning of the level, GDP growth in the fourth quarter of next year rose to 3%.
Fundamental analysis: consideration, and submitted to the State Council for approval by the State Council Tariff Commission, since January 1, 2013, China will import and export tariffs adjustments.
Natural rubber import tariffs proposed provisional tax rates: latex 10% or 720 yuan / ton, both from low; Smoked sheets and technical classification of natural rubber 20%, or 1,200 yuan / ton, both from low.
Technical and analysis positions: the December 17th Shanghai rubber futures opened higher bottom on the price quickly picked up again. Show a strong rebound on the whole still technically on the price has significantly exceeded 25,000 mark integer. The average start to move up. That period price significantly below the support, there is still some room for a rebound.
Positions of view, the main contract before the 20 mostly head and short positions, respectively, 41,309 and 46,791 hand bull Masukura 6119 hand, short Masukura 3233 hand bulls three Masukura most Haitong Securities, East Asia Futures Masukura nearly 4,000 hand. The short main to Wing On earth Zhejiang Department funds. Bulls days the Masukura is also Hujiao strong factor.
Operation strategy: the results of the meeting of the Central Economic favorable financial markets on Monday do more market sentiment. Supply and demand, the Chinese Ministry of Finance cut rubber import tariffs, which will stimulate more rubber into China; inventory is again rising the Qingdao tax returns area rubber, bad rubber. Hainan, Guangdong rubber producing areas to gradually reduce production glue, Yunnan rubber producing areas of basic stop cutting.
Full latex rubber market this week turnover of 504 tons, 1,308 tons traded concentrated latex, these two species are compared with the previous trading week, full latex substantial volume decreased concentrated the latex turnover slightly increased. Domestic rubber spot market transactions, please be sure to read the last important matters easy atmosphere in general, improve the atmosphere of limited stock fundamentals still cautious observation.
Translated by Google Translator from http://market.cria.org.cn/25/11953.html
