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Monday, August 15, 2022

Oversupply reproduction, Shanghai rubber not optimistic

By the market environment as a whole bearish impact, Shanghai rubber continues the preganglionic down trend, the focus continues to be down. As of this week, Shanghai rubber main contract closed at 24,650 yuan / ton (February 8 closing price of 26,635 yuan / ton) fell to 1985 yuan / ton, down 7.5%, compared to pre-holiday. Shanghai rubber cold case, tumbled a pre-holiday market confidence bullish outlook, the recent bearish market sentiment strong, Shanghai rubber market is not optimistic.

Supply to increase again

Domestic natural rubber imports hit a new high in January. The latest data released by the General Administration of Customs, January natural rubber imports 250,000 tons and 140,000 tons, higher than the same period last year, representing a substantial increase of 79%. Considering for the Lunar New Year holidays in January last year, working day adjusted data on imports, imports still grew 52% year-on-year in January of this year.January synthetic rubber imports 143,200 tons, 10 million tons higher than the same period last year also, working day adjusted year-on-year increase of 20.81%.

Also in China’s Qingdao Free Trade Zone, the full inventory operation on the pressure of the market can not be underestimated. Last week, Qingdao Free Trade Zone, rubber spot out of the library is relatively deserted. The individual large warehouse to keep tons or more, some Storehouse twenty-three one hundred tons. The one hand, prices have fallen, on the other hand the tire factories majority holiday did not return to work. It is understood that, years after the Free Trade Zone, rubber inventory of about 34 million tons, and March warehousing plan is still a lot. Warehouse full of the situation, having a rubber consumer materials used with the purchase.

The first quarter of previous years, northeastern Thailand rubber into the dry season defoliation, but above normal rainfall this year, leaves two weeks later, new leaves two weeks earlier this year in the northeastern region of the glue supply about a month more than in previous years . In addition, the Thai State Deputy Minister of Agriculture, said recently that the Thai government will cease to continue to perform its rubber-purchase plan, the current plan will expire in late March. Last year, the Thai government approved a 45 billion baht ($ 1.51 billion) plan to buy rubber from the hands of farmers, designed to support rubber prices. Due to the global economic downturn, when rubber prices has been compared with the 2011 record highs of more than half. Thailand as the largest rubber exporter, with the buy stop execution policy, will likely and out release inventory, is expected to the end of March, the Thai government from the hands of the rubber farmers to buy rubber establish inventory total will reach 410,000 tons, which will undoubtedly bring to market strong bearish expected.

The slow recovery of demand, the spot price without the city

According to the data released by the China Automobile Dealers Association, February 5, in January 2013, China’s auto dealer inventory warning index of 45.26%, rose by 0.9 percentage points qoq. Most of the consumer demand for cars due to release in December last year, resulting in the mid to late 1 car small peak before the Spring Festival, the January market demand was essentially flat with the previous month, the transaction price rebounded. Usher in the Chinese New Year in February, the effective working days to reduce the overall market demand in February, dealers generally looked down upon. Dealer inventory situation is not optimistic.

Foreign markets, according to data released by the European Automobile Manufacturers Association, ACEA, in January this year, the EU-27 passenger car registrations fell by 8.7%, the figures since the same period in 1990, a new low. From October 2011 to last month, the European automobile market for 16 consecutive months of year-on-year decline. The 27 EU countries plus Iceland, Norway and Switzerland in the European Free Trade Association in the three Nordic countries, in January fell 8.5 percent, also fallen for 16 months, the lowest in 23 years to record. Global rubber terminal automotive industry situation is still grim.

Conclusion

Domestic rubber spot there is no market price, and prices continue to decline in the years after the opening. The demand is a key factor constraining the market outlook Jiaojia: Even to be downstream plant is fully restored in March to start, and then will continue to consume the previous stocking. For Shanghai rubber market, Shanghai rubber price up years ago, but the amount of energy never been able to cooperate with, and began to return to the fundamentals of bullish factors gradually dissipated. Last Thursday Shanghai rubber main contract price fell below the rising channel since August last year, also fell below the support of years ago, has repeatedly confirmed 25,500 yuan / ton, the market outlook is not optimistic.

Translated by Google Translator from http://news.cria.org.cn/4/13052.html

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