According to the Southwest Chemical team, it is expected to increase by 800-1000 yuan/ton in December, and the industry’s average gross profit will reach 1500-2000 yuan/ton, which is very impressive compared to 2018.
1. The price rose nearly 4% this week
This week, the mainstream ex-factory price of N330 carbon black in Shandong area was 6800-7200 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of N330 carbon black in Shanxi area rose to 6700-7000 yuan/ton, an increase of 300-400 yuan/ton from the average price last week.
2. The deep reasons behind the price increase
The underlying reasons are the high prosperity of the tire industry chain and the capacity reduction and low operating rate of the coking-carbon black industry chain.
The industry’s average operating rate this week is 65%. The air pollution control policy in the autumn and winter of 2020-21 is strictly required. Some large enterprises have limited production by more than 20%, and severe areas have limited production by 50%. According to the survey, all parts of the country are issuing winter environmental protection policies, and carbon black is also included. In the future, it will become more and more strict nationwide. As of the end of October, the carbon black industry inventory was 120,000 tons, down 62% year-on-year and 22% month-on-month.
The operating rate of downstream all-steel tires in Shandong was 73%, up 5 percentage points year-on-year, and the operating rate of domestic semi-steel tire companies was 70%, up 3 percentage points year-on-year. At the same time, customs data showed that China’s tire exports in September remained the same month-on-month ratio. With double growth, the export situation is improving.
3. Earnings have exceeded 2018 levels
In December, the industry expects that new orders with tire manufacturers will rise by 800-1000 yuan/ton, and the industry’s average gross profit will reach 1500-2000 yuan/ton.
According to relevant experts, even if they are in their positions, the profitability of various carbon black plants has exceeded the level of 2018, and the profits are huge. In the follow-up trend, it is very possible to stand at 8000.
Black Cat is the domestic leader in carbon black, with a production capacity of 1.1 million tons, ranking first in China and fourth in the world, and its current operating rate is 90%. Every time the price of carbon black increases by 100 yuan/ton, the performance increases by 70 million. In addition to carbon black, the company’s layout has undergone major changes in the past two years, such as the layout of fine chemicals and the promotion of special carbon. On the 26th, the company stated that the net profit of equity incentives in the next three years will not be less than 2.1, 2.9, and 430 million, and will be conservative on this basis.
Translated by Google Translator from http://www.cria.org.cn/newsdetail/57513.html